Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Panna Udvardy v Darja Vidmanova

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 21:05 UTC

Final: Panna Udvardy 1–2 Darja Vidmanova

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Panna Udvardy (Local)

Prediction 34.16%2.93fair odd
EV -2.29%
Edge -0.801%
Kelly -1.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.62%34.28%34.15%36.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.752.752.8638.46%36.42%36.36%34.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Darja Vidmanova (Visit)

Prediction 65.84%1.52fair odd
EV -2.56%
Edge -1.73%
Kelly -5.34%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.73%65.72%65.85%67.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.371.421.431.4872.99%70.29%69.93%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Panna Udvardy (Local): 34.16%; Darja Vidmanova (Visit): 65.84%. For Panna Udvardy (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.93. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.86, with an expected value of -2.29%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64%EV -2.29%E -0.801%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 66.36%EV -4.54%E -3.13%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-23 16:29
BetOnline.ag🎯2.86I 34.97%NM 33.64%EV -2.29%E -0.801%K -1.23%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 66.36%EV -4.54%E -3.13%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-23 16:24
GTbets🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -2.63%E -0.923%K -1.42%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -9.15%E -6.63%K -24.07%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-23 15:20
Pinnacle🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 34.03%EV -3.32%E -1.17%K -1.81%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 65.97%EV -3.88%E -2.66%K -8.43%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-23 17:45
ReBet🎯2.81I 35.59%NM 33.88%EV -4.00%E -1.42%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.12%EV -5.20%E -3.61%K -11.81%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-23 20:09
Bovada🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.34%E -1.55%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.54%E -3.13%K -10.08%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-23 16:39
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.34%E -1.55%K -2.41%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.20%E -3.61%K -11.81%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-23 16:25
FanDuel🎯2.76I 36.23%NM 34.29%EV -5.71%E -2.07%K -3.24%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.71%EV -5.20%E -3.61%K -11.81%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-23 17:55
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -6.05%E -2.20%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.54%E -3.13%K -10.08%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-23 20:54
LeoVegas🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.05%E -2.20%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.20%E -3.61%K -11.81%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-23 16:24
Caesars🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -6.05%E -2.20%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -6.51%E -4.59%K -15.51%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-23 20:48
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.05%E -2.20%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.83%E -5.59%K -19.57%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-23 16:14
Sky Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.05%E -2.20%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.83%E -5.59%K -19.57%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-23 16:14
Paddy Power🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -6.05%E -2.20%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.83%E -5.59%K -19.57%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-23 16:14
BoyleSports🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -7.76%E -2.87%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.83%E -5.59%K -19.57%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-23 16:29
betano_uk🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -7.76%E -2.87%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.83%E -5.59%K -19.57%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-23 20:49
Bet Victor🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -7.76%E -2.87%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.83%E -5.59%K -19.57%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-23 20:45
NordicBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.66%EV -7.76%E -2.87%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 66.34%EV -9.81%E -7.16%K -26.50%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-23 20:59
Betsson🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.66%EV -7.76%E -2.87%K -4.56%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 66.34%EV -9.81%E -7.16%K -26.50%G +0.000%10.0%2026-08-23 21:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 34.81%EV -9.81%E -3.71%K -5.98%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.19%EV -7.17%E -5.09%K -17.49%G +0.000%8.8%2026-08-23 20:40
PlayUp🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -11.17%E -4.30%K -6.98%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -2.56%E -1.73%K -5.34%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-23 20:54
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -11.17%E -4.30%K -6.98%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -4.54%E -3.13%K -10.08%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-23 17:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig2.90I 34.48%NM 34.39%1.52I 65.79%NM 65.61%0.3%2026-08-23 21:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.84I 35.21%NM 35.01%1.53I 65.36%NM 64.99%0.6%2026-08-23 21:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.84I 35.21%NM 35.01%1.53I 65.36%NM 64.99%0.6%2026-08-23 21:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.84I 35.21%NM 35.01%1.53I 65.36%NM 64.99%0.6%2026-08-23 21:00
ProphetX2.82I 35.46%NM 35.02%1.52I 65.79%NM 64.98%1.3%2026-08-23 21:00