Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Maya Joint v Yulia Putintseva

Kickoff: 2026-08-23 22:20 UTC

Final: Maya Joint 2–1 Yulia Putintseva

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Maya Joint (Local)

Prediction 45.55%2.20fair odd
EV -1.15%
Edge -0.532%
Kelly -0.986%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.30%45.62%45.55%47.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.072.062.1750.00%48.30%48.43%46.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Yulia Putintseva (Visit)

Prediction 54.45%1.84fair odd
EV -1.99%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -2.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.63%54.38%54.45%55.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.731.731.8059.88%57.89%57.97%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Maya Joint (Local): 45.55%; Yulia Putintseva (Visit): 54.45%. For Maya Joint (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.20. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.17, with an expected value of -1.15%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.36%EV -1.15%E -0.532%K -0.986%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.64%EV -5.80%E -3.35%K -7.95%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-23 21:49
BetOnline.ag🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 44.36%EV -1.15%E -0.532%K -0.986%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.64%EV -5.80%E -3.35%K -7.95%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-23 21:45
Pinnacle🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.87%EV -2.06%E -0.960%K -1.80%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.13%EV -4.71%E -2.69%K -6.29%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-23 20:20
Bovada🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.34%E -2.07%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.63%E -2.05%K -4.71%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-23 20:04
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -4.34%E -2.07%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.35%E -3.69%K -8.82%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-23 20:44
LeoVegas🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -4.34%E -2.07%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.35%E -3.69%K -8.82%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-23 22:09
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.34%E -2.07%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -9.07%E -5.43%K -13.54%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-23 20:45
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.34%E -2.07%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -9.07%E -5.43%K -13.54%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-23 20:45
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -4.34%E -2.07%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -9.07%E -5.43%K -13.54%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-23 20:45
Unibet (UK)🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.71%EV -4.80%E -2.30%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.29%EV -4.17%E -2.37%K -5.49%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-23 18:55
ReBet🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -5.25%E -2.53%K -4.86%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.71%E -2.69%K -6.29%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-23 21:30
Caesars🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.62%E -3.23%K -6.30%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.26%E -3.02%K -7.11%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-23 15:34
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -6.62%E -3.23%K -6.30%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -6.89%E -4.03%K -9.71%G +0.000%7.3%2026-08-23 15:05
betano_uk🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -6.62%E -3.23%K -6.30%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.44%E -4.37%K -10.62%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-23 18:58
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -6.62%E -3.23%K -6.30%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.44%E -4.37%K -10.62%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-23 18:59
GTbets🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 46.86%EV -7.53%E -3.71%K -7.31%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.14%EV -2.54%E -1.42%K -3.21%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-23 15:20
NordicBet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.84%EV -7.99%E -3.95%K -7.83%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.16%EV -6.89%E -4.03%K -9.71%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-23 19:00
Betsson🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.84%EV -7.99%E -3.95%K -7.83%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.16%EV -6.89%E -4.03%K -9.71%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-23 18:55
Marathon Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.55%EV -7.99%E -3.95%K -7.83%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.45%EV -7.98%E -4.72%K -11.57%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-23 21:34
Betway🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.90%E -4.45%K -8.90%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -1.99%E -1.11%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-23 20:04
PlayUp🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.09%EV -8.90%E -4.45%K -8.90%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.91%EV -3.08%E -1.73%K -3.95%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-23 20:44
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -8.90%E -4.45%K -8.90%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.80%E -3.35%K -7.95%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-23 21:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.34I 42.74%NM 42.65%1.74I 57.47%NM 57.35%0.2%2026-08-23 21:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.34I 42.74%NM 42.65%1.74I 57.47%NM 57.35%0.2%2026-08-23 21:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.34I 42.74%NM 42.65%1.74I 57.47%NM 57.35%0.2%2026-08-23 21:50
Novig2.30I 43.48%NM 43.07%1.74I 57.47%NM 56.93%0.9%2026-08-23 22:15
ProphetX2.32I 43.10%NM 42.43%1.71I 58.48%NM 57.57%1.6%2026-08-23 21:40