Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Whitney Osuigwe v Donna Vekic

Kickoff: 2026-03-16 21:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Whitney Osuigwe (Local)

Prediction 22.41%4.46fair odd
EV +3.29%
Edge +0.715%
Kelly +0.913%
Growth +0.030%

assuming max odds 4.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.63%22.29%22.16%23.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.004.254.204.6125.00%23.51%23.81%21.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Donna Vekic (Visit)

Prediction 77.59%1.29fair odd
EV -4.56%
Edge -3.71%
Kelly -19.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
76.63%77.71%77.84%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.171.211.221.2385.47%82.72%81.97%81.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Whitney Osuigwe (Local): 22.41%; Donna Vekic (Visit): 77.59%. For Whitney Osuigwe (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.46. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.61, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.29%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯4.61I 21.69%NM 20.93%EV +3.29%E +0.715%K +0.913%G +0.030%1.22I 81.97%NM 79.07%EV -5.34%E -4.37%K -24.25%G +0.000%3.7%2026-03-16 19:40
LowVig.ag🎯4.58I 21.83%NM 21.03%EV +2.62%E +0.573%K +0.733%G +0.019%1.22I 81.97%NM 78.97%EV -5.34%E -4.37%K -24.25%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-16 20:25
BetOnline.ag🎯4.58I 21.83%NM 21.03%EV +2.62%E +0.573%K +0.733%G +0.019%1.22I 81.97%NM 78.97%EV -5.34%E -4.37%K -24.25%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-16 20:25
Mr Green (SE)🎯4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV +0.830%E +0.184%K +0.237%G +0.002%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -9.22%E -7.88%K -54.21%G +0.000%7.7%2026-03-16 20:30
GTbets🎯4.45I 22.47%NM 21.65%EV -0.290%E -0.065%K -0.084%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 78.35%EV -4.56%E -3.71%K -19.83%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-16 19:40
William Hill🎯4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -2.98%E -0.688%K -0.895%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -6.89%E -5.74%K -34.44%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-16 19:40
Betway🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -4.77%E -1.12%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -5.34%E -4.37%K -24.25%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-16 20:35
theScore Bet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -4.77%E -1.12%K -1.47%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -6.89%E -5.74%K -34.44%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-16 20:35
Coral🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -5.89%E -1.40%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.34%E -4.37%K -24.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-16 20:35
PlayUp🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV -5.89%E -1.40%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -5.34%E -4.37%K -24.25%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-16 19:40
NordicBet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -5.89%E -1.40%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.07%EV -8.44%E -7.15%K -46.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-16 20:35
Betsson🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -5.89%E -1.40%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.07%EV -8.44%E -7.15%K -46.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-16 20:35
Fliff🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV -5.89%E -1.40%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.07%EV -8.44%E -7.15%K -46.89%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-16 20:30
888sport🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -10.37%E -2.59%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.34%E -4.37%K -24.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-16 20:35
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -10.37%E -2.59%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.34%E -4.37%K -24.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-16 20:35
BoyleSports🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -10.37%E -2.59%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.34%E -4.37%K -24.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-16 20:35
888sport (SE)🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -10.37%E -2.59%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.34%E -4.37%K -24.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-16 20:35
Bet Victor🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -10.37%E -2.59%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -5.34%E -4.37%K -24.25%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-16 20:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%5.6%2026-03-16 20:35