Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva v Varvara Lepchenko

Kickoff: 2026-03-16 14:12 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

65%

35%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva (Local)

Prediction 65.26%1.53fair odd

EV +1.15%

Edge +0.741%

Kelly +2.09%

Growth +0.024%

assuming max odds 1.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

60.76%65.59%64.87%70.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.331.421.441.5575.19%70.23%69.44%64.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Varvara Lepchenko (Visit)

Prediction 34.74%2.88fair odd

EV +12.91%

Edge +3.97%

Kelly +5.74%

Growth +0.741%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.04%34.41%35.13%39.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.372.782.633.2542.19%35.99%37.95%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva (Local): 65.26%; Varvara Lepchenko (Visit): 34.74%. For Varvara Lepchenko (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.88. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.91%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
William Hill🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -13.21%E -9.93%K -40.02%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV +12.91%E +3.97%K +5.74%G +0.741%	6.0%	2026-03-16 09:20
Pinnacle🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 70.22%EV -10.60%E -7.74%K -28.64%G +0.000%	3.23I 30.96%NM 29.78%EV +12.22%E +3.78%K +5.48%G +0.670%	4.0%	2026-03-16 13:20
LowVig.ag🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -11.25%E -8.27%K -31.25%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV +11.18%E +3.49%K +5.08%G +0.568%	4.8%	2026-03-15 20:00
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -11.25%E -8.27%K -31.25%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV +11.18%E +3.49%K +5.08%G +0.568%	4.8%	2026-03-15 20:00
GTbets🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 69.62%EV -10.60%E -7.74%K -28.64%G +0.000%	3.14I 31.85%NM 30.38%EV +9.09%E +2.90%K +4.25%G +0.386%	4.8%	2026-03-16 14:02
PlayUp🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -11.25%E -8.27%K -31.25%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +7.70%E +2.48%K +3.67%G +0.283%	5.8%	2026-03-15 20:00
Betsson🎯	1.37I 72.99%NM 66.75%EV -10.60%E -7.74%K -28.64%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.25%EV -4.46%E -1.62%K -2.55%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-03-16 14:09
Bet Victor🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -6.03%E -4.19%K -13.70%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -6.19%E -2.29%K -3.64%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-03-16 14:08
Fliff🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 65.43%EV -8.64%E -6.17%K -21.60%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%EV -7.93%E -2.99%K -4.81%G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-03-16 14:10
888sport🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.03%E -4.19%K -13.70%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -8.97%E -3.43%K -5.54%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-03-16 14:10
BoyleSports🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.03%E -4.19%K -13.70%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -8.97%E -3.43%K -5.54%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-03-16 14:09
888sport (SE)🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.03%E -4.19%K -13.70%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -8.97%E -3.43%K -5.54%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-03-16 14:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.03%E -4.19%K -13.70%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -8.97%E -3.43%K -5.54%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-03-16 14:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -3.42%E -2.31%K -7.12%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -9.67%E -3.72%K -6.04%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-03-16 14:10
theScore Bet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -2.11%E -1.41%K -4.23%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -13.14%E -5.26%K -8.76%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-03-16 14:10
NordicBet🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 62.82%EV -5.38%E -3.71%K -11.95%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.18%EV -14.88%E -6.07%K -10.26%G +0.000%	9.8%	2026-03-16 14:10
Betway🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV +1.15%E +0.741%K +2.09%G +0.024%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -16.62%E -6.92%K -11.87%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-03-16 14:10
Coral🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.77%EV -0.156%E -0.102%K -0.295%G +0.000%	2.37I 42.19%NM 39.23%EV -17.66%E -7.45%K -12.89%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-03-16 14:10

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.42I 70.42%NM 64.68%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%	8.9%	2026-03-16 14:10