Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Renata Zarazua v Martina Trevisan

Kickoff: 2026-03-16 18:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

68%

32%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Renata Zarazua (Local)

Prediction 68.32%1.46fair odd

EV -1.61%

Edge -1.12%

Kelly -3.67%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

64.53%70.26%68.52%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.201.331.351.4483.33%75.44%73.80%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Martina Trevisan (Visit)

Prediction 31.68%3.16fair odd

EV +52.05%

Edge +10.84%

Kelly +13.70%

Growth +7.13%

assuming max odds 4.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

20.00%29.74%31.48%35.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.623.412.984.8038.17%29.34%33.61%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Renata Zarazua (Local): 68.32%; Martina Trevisan (Visit): 31.68%. For Martina Trevisan (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.16. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +52.05%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
LowVig.ag🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -18.01%E -15.01%K -90.06%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV +52.05%E +10.84%K +13.70%G +7.13%	4.2%	2026-03-16 17:40
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 80.00%EV -18.01%E -15.01%K -90.06%G +0.000%	4.80I 20.83%NM 20.00%EV +52.05%E +10.84%K +13.70%G +7.13%	4.2%	2026-03-16 17:40
Pinnacle🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 79.07%EV -16.65%E -13.64%K -75.66%G +0.000%	4.61I 21.69%NM 20.93%EV +46.03%E +9.99%K +12.75%G +5.87%	3.7%	2026-03-16 17:40
GTbets🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 78.14%EV -16.65%E -13.64%K -75.66%G +0.000%	4.36I 22.94%NM 21.86%EV +38.11%E +8.74%K +11.34%G +4.32%	4.9%	2026-03-16 17:39
William Hill🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -18.01%E -15.01%K -90.06%G +0.000%	4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV +37.16%E +8.58%K +11.16%G +4.15%	6.4%	2026-03-16 17:40
PlayUp🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -16.65%E -13.64%K -75.66%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV +33.04%E +7.87%K +10.33%G +3.41%	5.8%	2026-03-16 17:39
theScore Bet🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.08%E -5.21%K -19.67%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.97%E -1.66%K -2.48%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-16 18:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.08%E -5.21%K -19.67%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.97%E -1.66%K -2.48%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-16 18:04
Bet Victor🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.08%E -5.21%K -19.67%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.97%E -1.66%K -2.48%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-16 18:03
Fliff🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 68.76%EV -8.45%E -6.30%K -24.84%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 31.24%EV -6.55%E -2.22%K -3.36%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-03-16 18:05
Betway🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -4.35%E -3.11%K -10.87%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.28%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-03-16 18:04
Coral🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -7.08%E -5.21%K -19.67%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.28%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-03-16 18:05
Betsson🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -7.76%E -5.75%K -22.18%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -8.14%E -2.81%K -4.28%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-03-16 18:04
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -4.35%E -3.11%K -10.87%G +0.000%	2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -9.09%E -3.17%K -4.86%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-16 18:05
NordicBet🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 67.47%EV -7.76%E -5.75%K -22.18%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 32.53%EV -11.30%E -4.04%K -6.28%G +0.000%	9.8%	2026-03-16 18:05
BoyleSports🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -1.61%E -1.12%K -3.67%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -14.47%E -5.36%K -8.51%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-03-16 18:05
888sport🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -1.61%E -1.12%K -3.67%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -17.01%E -6.49%K -10.50%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-03-16 18:05
888sport (SE)🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -1.61%E -1.12%K -3.67%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -17.01%E -6.49%K -10.50%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-03-16 18:05

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%	3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%	6.9%	2026-03-16 18:05