Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marina Melnikova v Elvina Kalieva

Kickoff: 2026-03-16 18:40 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

10%

90%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marina Melnikova (Local)

Prediction 10.26%9.75fair odd

EV +33.37%

Edge +2.57%

Kelly +2.78%

Growth +0.928%

assuming max odds 13.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

7.34%9.83%10.26%11.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

8.4010.369.5013.0011.90%9.66%10.53%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Elvina Kalieva (Visit)

Prediction 89.74%1.11fair odd

EV -4.88%

Edge -4.60%

Kelly -81.25%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

88.91%90.17%89.74%92.66%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.031.041.041.0697.09%95.81%95.69%94.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Marina Melnikova (Local): 10.26%; Elvina Kalieva (Visit): 89.74%. For Marina Melnikova (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.75. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 13.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +33.37%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +33.37%E +2.57%K +2.78%G +0.928%	1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -7.57%E -7.35%K -252.25%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-03-16 18:10
Coral🎯	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +33.37%E +2.57%K +2.78%G +0.928%	1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -7.57%E -7.35%K -252.25%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-03-16 18:10
Pinnacle🎯	12.54I 7.97%NM 7.73%EV +28.66%E +2.29%K +2.48%G +0.712%	1.05I 95.24%NM 92.27%EV -5.77%E -5.50%K -115.45%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-03-16 18:25
Betway🎯	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV +2.60%E +0.260%K +0.288%G +0.007%	1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -5.77%E -5.50%K -115.45%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-03-16 18:35
William Hill🎯	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -7.66%E -0.852%K -0.958%G +0.000%	1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -5.77%E -5.50%K -115.45%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-16 17:25
theScore Bet🎯	8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -12.79%E -1.51%K -1.71%G +0.000%	1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -4.88%E -4.60%K -81.25%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-03-16 18:15
NordicBet🎯	8.40I 11.90%NM 11.02%EV -13.82%E -1.65%K -1.87%G +0.000%	1.04I 96.15%NM 88.98%EV -6.67%E -6.41%K -166.75%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-03-16 17:50
Betsson🎯	8.40I 11.90%NM 11.02%EV -13.82%E -1.65%K -1.87%G +0.000%	1.04I 96.15%NM 88.98%EV -6.67%E -6.41%K -166.75%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-03-16 17:50

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.