Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lulu Sun v Maria Timofeeva

Kickoff: 2026-03-16 19:14 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

65%

35%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lulu Sun (Local)

Prediction 64.74%1.54fair odd

EV +2.94%

Edge +1.85%

Kelly +4.98%

Growth +0.146%

assuming max odds 1.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

57.49%64.85%64.20%68.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.381.471.451.5972.46%68.16%68.97%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Maria Timofeeva (Visit)

Prediction 35.26%2.84fair odd

EV +6.13%

Edge +2.04%

Kelly +3.05%

Growth +0.187%

assuming max odds 3.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

31.51%35.15%35.80%42.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.152.622.603.0146.51%38.14%38.46%33.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lulu Sun (Local): 64.74%; Maria Timofeeva (Visit): 35.26%. For Maria Timofeeva (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.84. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.01, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.13%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.95%EV -8.07%E -5.68%K -19.21%G +0.000%	3.01I 33.22%NM 32.05%EV +6.13%E +2.04%K +3.05%G +0.187%	3.6%	2026-03-16 19:10
Betway🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -10.66%E -7.72%K -28.04%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV +5.78%E +1.93%K +2.89%G +0.167%	5.8%	2026-03-16 19:10
LowVig.ag🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -7.42%E -5.19%K -17.25%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV +1.54%E +0.536%K +0.821%G +0.013%	4.7%	2026-03-16 19:09
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -7.42%E -5.19%K -17.25%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV +1.54%E +0.536%K +0.821%G +0.013%	4.7%	2026-03-16 19:09
PlayUp🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -8.07%E -5.68%K -19.21%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -1.28%E -0.456%K -0.709%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-03-16 19:00
William Hill🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.77%E -4.70%K -15.39%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -7.62%E -2.91%K -4.71%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-03-16 19:00
888sport (SE)🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.77%E -4.70%K -15.39%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -7.62%E -2.91%K -4.71%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-03-16 18:59
Coral🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.18%E -2.83%K -8.71%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -8.33%E -3.20%K -5.21%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-03-16 19:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -4.18%E -2.83%K -8.71%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -8.33%E -3.20%K -5.21%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-03-16 19:10
theScore Bet🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.12%E -4.22%K -13.61%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -8.33%E -3.20%K -5.21%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-03-16 19:09
Bet Victor🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -6.12%E -4.22%K -13.61%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -8.33%E -3.20%K -5.21%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-03-16 19:04
NordicBet🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -6.12%E -4.22%K -13.61%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -10.09%E -3.96%K -6.51%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-03-16 19:10
Betsson🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -6.12%E -4.22%K -13.61%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -10.09%E -3.96%K -6.51%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-03-16 19:10
BoyleSports🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -2.89%E -1.93%K -5.78%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -11.85%E -4.74%K -7.90%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-03-16 19:10
GTbets🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%EV -0.298%E -0.193%K -0.552%G +0.000%	2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%EV -12.56%E -5.06%K -8.49%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-03-16 19:00
888sport🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -0.945%E -0.618%K -1.78%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -16.09%E -6.76%K -11.66%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-03-16 19:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -0.945%E -0.618%K -1.78%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -16.09%E -6.76%K -11.66%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-03-16 19:10
Fliff🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 57.49%EV +2.94%E +1.85%K +4.98%G +0.146%	2.15I 46.51%NM 42.51%EV -24.19%E -11.25%K -21.04%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-03-16 19:10

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.48I 67.57%NM 66.67%	2.96I 33.78%NM 33.33%	1.4%	2026-03-16 19:10