Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Julia Grabher v Maria Sakkari

Kickoff: 2026-03-18 14:45 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

14%

86%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Julia Grabher (Local)

Prediction 13.53%7.39fair odd

EV +4.89%

Edge +0.631%

Kelly +0.724%

Growth +0.035%

assuming max odds 7.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

12.53%13.57%13.58%15.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

6.007.017.007.7516.67%14.26%14.29%12.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Maria Sakkari (Visit)

Prediction 86.47%1.16fair odd

EV -3.16%

Edge -2.82%

Kelly -26.32%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

84.27%86.43%86.42%87.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.071.101.101.1293.46%91.14%90.91%89.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Julia Grabher (Local): 13.53%; Maria Sakkari (Visit): 86.47%. For Julia Grabher (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 7.39. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.89%.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Coolbet🎯	7.75I 12.90%NM 12.53%EV +4.89%E +0.631%K +0.724%G +0.035%	1.11I 90.09%NM 87.47%EV -4.02%E -3.62%K -36.57%G +0.000%	3.0%	2026-03-16 13:19
1xBet🎯	7.65I 13.07%NM 12.67%EV +3.54%E +0.462%K +0.532%G +0.019%	1.11I 90.09%NM 87.33%EV -4.02%E -3.62%K -36.57%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-03-16 15:05
BoyleSports🎯	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV +1.51%E +0.201%K +0.232%G +0.003%	1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -6.62%E -6.13%K -82.71%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-03-16 13:20
DraftKings🎯	7.20I 13.89%NM 13.46%EV -2.55%E -0.355%K -0.412%G +0.000%	1.12I 89.29%NM 86.54%EV -3.16%E -2.82%K -26.32%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-03-16 14:30
NordicBet🎯	7.20I 13.89%NM 13.25%EV -2.55%E -0.355%K -0.412%G +0.000%	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.75%EV -4.89%E -4.44%K -48.88%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-03-16 13:20
Betsson🎯	7.20I 13.89%NM 13.25%EV -2.55%E -0.355%K -0.412%G +0.000%	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.75%EV -4.89%E -4.44%K -48.88%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-03-16 13:20
GTbets🎯	7.08I 14.12%NM 13.55%EV -4.18%E -0.590%K -0.687%G +0.000%	1.11I 90.09%NM 86.45%EV -4.02%E -3.62%K -36.57%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-03-16 14:20
Fliff🎯	7.05I 14.18%NM 13.28%EV -4.58%E -0.650%K -0.758%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 86.72%EV -6.62%E -6.13%K -82.71%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-03-16 16:00
Betway🎯	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -5.26%E -0.751%K -0.877%G +0.000%	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -4.89%E -4.44%K -48.88%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-03-16 15:05
Fanatics🎯	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -5.26%E -0.751%K -0.877%G +0.000%	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -4.89%E -4.44%K -48.88%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-03-16 13:20
Bet Right🎯	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -5.26%E -0.751%K -0.877%G +0.000%	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -4.89%E -4.44%K -48.88%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-03-16 13:20
888sport🎯	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -5.26%E -0.751%K -0.877%G +0.000%	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -4.89%E -4.44%K -48.88%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-03-16 13:15
888sport (SE)🎯	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -5.26%E -0.751%K -0.877%G +0.000%	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -4.89%E -4.44%K -48.88%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-03-16 14:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -5.26%E -0.751%K -0.877%G +0.000%	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -4.89%E -4.44%K -48.88%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-03-16 14:05
Coral🎯	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -5.26%E -0.751%K -0.877%G +0.000%	1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.75%E -5.28%K -63.91%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-03-16 13:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.47%EV -5.26%E -0.751%K -0.877%G +0.000%	1.09I 91.74%NM 86.53%EV -5.75%E -5.28%K -63.91%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-03-16 13:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -5.26%E -0.751%K -0.877%G +0.000%	1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -7.48%E -6.99%K -106.88%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-03-16 13:15
Neds🎯	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.26%EV -5.26%E -0.751%K -0.877%G +0.000%	1.07I 93.46%NM 86.74%EV -7.48%E -6.99%K -106.88%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-03-16 13:15
PointsBet (AU)🎯	6.90I 14.49%NM 13.75%EV -6.61%E -0.959%K -1.12%G +0.000%	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.25%EV -4.89%E -4.44%K -48.88%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-03-16 15:00
theScore Bet🎯	6.75I 14.81%NM 13.90%EV -8.64%E -1.28%K -1.50%G +0.000%	1.09I 91.74%NM 86.10%EV -5.75%E -5.28%K -63.91%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-03-16 13:25
PlayUp🎯	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -18.79%E -3.13%K -3.76%G +0.000%	1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -3.16%E -2.82%K -26.32%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-03-16 13:30
Bet Victor🎯	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.49%EV -18.79%E -3.13%K -3.76%G +0.000%	1.10I 90.91%NM 84.51%EV -4.89%E -4.44%K -48.88%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-03-16 13:24

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	5.40I 18.52%NM 16.54%	1.07I 93.46%NM 83.46%	12.0%	2026-03-16 14:15