L’École des cotes

Francesca Jones v Venus Williams

Coup d’envoi : 2026-03-19 23:00 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

45 opérateurs (17 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Francesca Jones (Local)

Prévision 94.93%1.05cote équitable
EV +42.40%
Avantage +28.26%
Kelly +84.79%
Croissance +35.95%

avec la cote maximale 1.50

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
62.96%91.68%95.45%98.53%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.001.071.011.50100.00%93.05%99.01%66.67%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Venus Williams (Visiteur)

Prévision 5.07%19.73cote équitable
EV +239.61%
Avantage +3.58%
Kelly +3.63%
Croissance +8.70%

avec la cote maximale 67.00

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
1.47%8.32%4.55%37.04%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
2.5517.3415.0067.0039.22%5.77%6.67%1.49%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (45 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
LowVig.ag1.50I 66.67%NM 64.62%EV +42.40%E +28.26%K +84.79%G +35.95%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.38%EV -86.11%E -31.43%K -49.49%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-19 17:17
BetOnline.ag1.50I 66.67%NM 64.62%EV +42.40%E +28.26%K +84.79%G +35.95%2.74I 36.50%NM 35.38%EV -86.11%E -31.43%K -49.49%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-19 17:17
PlayUp1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV +42.40%E +28.26%K +84.79%G +35.95%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -87.07%E -34.15%K -56.18%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-19 17:15
PMU (FR)1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV +36.70%E +25.49%K +83.41%G +30.61%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -86.72%E -33.10%K -53.53%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-19 17:16
Pinnacle1.27I 78.74%NM 76.70%EV +20.56%E +16.19%K +76.16%G +15.66%4.18I 23.92%NM 23.30%EV -78.81%E -18.85%K -24.78%G +0.000%2.7%2026-03-19 18:55
TAB1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV +17.71%E +14.29%K +73.81%G +13.08%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -80.74%E -21.25%K -28.84%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-19 19:00
BetRivers1.14I 87.72%NM 82.57%EV +8.22%E +7.21%K +58.73%G +4.83%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.43%EV -72.63%E -13.45%K -16.51%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-19 19:00
Grosvenor1.13I 88.50%NM 82.70%EV +7.27%E +6.44%K +55.94%G +4.07%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV -72.63%E -13.45%K -16.51%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-19 19:00
Bally Bet1.13I 88.50%NM 82.70%EV +7.27%E +6.44%K +55.94%G +4.07%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.30%EV -72.63%E -13.45%K -16.51%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-19 19:00
Virgin Bet1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV +0.627%E +0.592%K +10.45%G +0.066%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -59.45%E -7.43%K -8.49%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-19 19:03
LiveScore Bet1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV +0.627%E +0.592%K +10.45%G +0.066%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -59.45%E -7.43%K -8.49%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-19 19:03
LeoVegas1.05I 95.24%NM 87.72%EV -0.322%E -0.307%K -6.45%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -61.98%E -8.26%K -9.54%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-19 19:03
Winamax (FR)1.04I 96.15%NM 93.52%EV -1.27%E -1.22%K -31.79%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.48%EV -23.97%E -1.60%K -1.71%G +0.000%2.8%2026-03-19 19:05
NordicBet1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -2.22%E -2.16%K -74.03%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -39.17%E -3.26%K -3.56%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-19 19:04
Caesars1.03I 97.09%NM 91.44%EV -2.22%E -2.16%K -74.03%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.56%EV -44.24%E -4.02%K -4.42%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-19 19:05
Fliff1.03I 97.09%NM 89.08%EV -2.22%E -2.16%K -74.03%G +0.000%8.40I 11.90%NM 10.92%EV -57.42%E -6.84%K -7.76%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-19 19:03
DraftKings1.02I 98.04%NM 96.36%EV -3.17%E -3.11%K -158.51%G +0.000%27.00I 3.70%NM 3.64%EV +36.86%E +1.37%K +1.42%G +0.523%1.7%2026-03-19 19:07
Bovada1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -3.17%E -3.11%K -158.51%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -23.97%E -1.60%K -1.71%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-19 19:14
FanDuel1.01I 99.01%NM 96.84%EV -4.12%E -4.08%K -411.95%G +0.000%31.00I 3.23%NM 3.16%EV +57.13%E +1.84%K +1.90%G +1.09%2.2%2026-03-19 19:07
BoyleSports1.01I 99.01%NM 96.26%EV -4.12%E -4.08%K -411.95%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.74%EV +31.79%E +1.22%K +1.27%G +0.404%2.9%2026-03-19 19:07
Winamax (DE)1.01I 99.01%NM 96.12%EV -4.12%E -4.08%K -411.95%G +0.000%25.00I 4.00%NM 3.88%EV +26.72%E +1.07%K +1.11%G +0.297%3.0%2026-03-19 19:06
BetMGM1.01I 99.01%NM 94.82%EV -4.12%E -4.08%K -411.95%G +0.000%18.50I 5.41%NM 5.18%EV -6.23%E -0.337%K -0.356%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-19 19:07
Hard Rock Bet1.01I 99.01%NM 94.82%EV -4.12%E -4.08%K -411.95%G +0.000%18.50I 5.41%NM 5.18%EV -6.23%E -0.337%K -0.356%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-19 19:04
Casumo1.01I 99.01%NM 94.69%EV -4.12%E -4.08%K -411.95%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.31%EV -8.76%E -0.487%K -0.515%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-19 19:05
Unibet1.01I 99.01%NM 94.69%EV -4.12%E -4.08%K -411.95%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.31%EV -8.76%E -0.487%K -0.515%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-19 19:04
Svenska Spel1.01I 99.01%NM 94.69%EV -4.12%E -4.08%K -411.95%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.31%EV -8.76%E -0.487%K -0.515%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-19 19:05
Unibet (NL)1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -4.12%E -4.08%K -411.95%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV -18.90%E -1.18%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-19 19:05
Unibet (SE)1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -4.12%E -4.08%K -411.95%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV -18.90%E -1.18%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-19 19:05
betPARX1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -4.12%E -4.08%K -411.95%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV -18.90%E -1.18%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-19 19:05
ATG (SE)1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -4.12%E -4.08%K -411.95%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV -18.90%E -1.18%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-19 19:05
888sport (SE)1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -4.12%E -4.08%K -411.95%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -23.97%E -1.60%K -1.71%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-19 19:07
Betsson1.01I 99.01%NM 93.49%EV -4.12%E -4.08%K -411.95%G +0.000%14.50I 6.90%NM 6.51%EV -26.50%E -1.83%K -1.96%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-19 19:06
TABtouch1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -4.12%E -4.08%K -411.95%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -29.04%E -2.07%K -2.23%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-19 19:05
Bet Victor1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -4.12%E -4.08%K -411.95%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -34.11%E -2.62%K -2.84%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-19 19:07
LeoVegas (SE)1.01I 99.01%NM 90.83%EV -4.12%E -4.08%K -411.95%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -49.31%E -4.93%K -5.48%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-19 19:03
SportsBet1.00I 100.00%NM 98.53%EV -5.07%E -5.07%K +0.000%G +0.000%67.00I 1.49%NM 1.47%EV +239.61%E +3.58%K +3.63%G +8.70%1.5%2026-03-19 19:09
Fanatics1.00I 100.00%NM 98.08%EV -5.07%E -5.07%K +0.000%G +0.000%51.00I 1.96%NM 1.92%EV +158.51%E +3.11%K +3.17%G +5.03%2.0%2026-03-19 19:08
Ladbrokes (UK)1.00I 100.00%NM 97.62%EV -5.07%E -5.07%K +0.000%G +0.000%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.38%EV +107.82%E +2.63%K +2.70%G +2.91%2.4%2026-03-19 19:07
theScore Bet1.00I 100.00%NM 97.62%EV -5.07%E -5.07%K +0.000%G +0.000%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.38%EV +107.82%E +2.63%K +2.70%G +2.91%2.4%2026-03-19 19:06
Betway1.00I 100.00%NM 96.30%EV -5.07%E -5.07%K +0.000%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.70%EV +31.79%E +1.22%K +1.27%G +0.404%3.8%2026-03-19 19:07
PointsBet (AU)1.00I 100.00%NM 96.30%EV -5.07%E -5.07%K +0.000%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.70%EV +31.79%E +1.22%K +1.27%G +0.404%3.8%2026-03-19 19:07
888sport1.00I 100.00%NM 95.45%EV -5.07%E -5.07%K +0.000%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.55%EV +6.45%E +0.307%K +0.322%G +0.021%4.8%2026-03-19 19:06
Coolbet1.00I 100.00%NM 95.45%EV -5.07%E -5.07%K +0.000%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.55%EV +6.45%E +0.307%K +0.322%G +0.021%4.8%2026-03-19 19:06
Mr Green (SE)1.00I 100.00%NM 95.45%EV -5.07%E -5.07%K +0.000%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.55%EV +6.45%E +0.307%K +0.322%G +0.021%4.8%2026-03-19 19:06
Paddy Power1.00I 100.00%NM 93.75%EV -5.07%E -5.07%K +0.000%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.25%EV -23.97%E -1.60%K -1.71%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-19 19:07
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (7)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Smarkets1.02I 98.04%NM 97.51%40.00I 2.50%NM 2.49%0.5%2026-03-19 19:07
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.02I 98.04%NM 97.09%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.91%1.0%2026-03-19 19:09
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.01I 99.01%NM 98.02%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.98%1.0%2026-03-19 19:09
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.01I 99.01%NM 98.02%50.00I 2.00%NM 1.98%1.0%2026-03-19 19:10
Matchbook1.02I 98.04%NM 96.91%32.00I 3.13%NM 3.09%1.2%2026-03-19 19:07
Novig1.02I 98.04%NM 95.52%21.74I 4.60%NM 4.48%2.6%2026-03-19 19:07
ProphetX1.03I 97.09%NM 91.78%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.22%5.8%2026-03-19 19:05