Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Anastasia Zakharova v Louisa Chirico

Kickoff: 2026-03-16 18:15 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Anastasia Zakharova (Local)

Prediction 92.37%1.08fair odd
EV +4.38%
Edge +3.87%
Kelly +33.66%
Growth +1.47%

assuming max odds 1.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
83.58%92.33%92.13%93.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.011.031.021.1399.01%97.09%98.04%88.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Louisa Chirico (Visit)

Prediction 7.63%13.10fair odd
EV +14.48%
Edge +0.965%
Kelly +1.03%
Growth +0.150%

assuming max odds 15.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.31%7.67%7.87%16.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.7512.3913.0015.0017.39%8.07%7.69%6.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Anastasia Zakharova (Local): 92.37%; Louisa Chirico (Visit): 7.63%. For Louisa Chirico (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 13.10. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 15.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.48%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
PlayUp🎯1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV +4.38%E +3.87%K +33.66%G +1.47%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -56.12%E -9.76%K -11.81%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-16 17:55
Pinnacle🎯1.08I 92.59%NM 91.54%EV -0.242%E -0.224%K -3.03%G +0.000%11.69I 8.55%NM 8.46%EV -10.78%E -0.923%K -1.01%G +0.000%1.1%2026-03-16 18:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -4.86%E -4.72%K -162.02%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV +14.48%E +0.965%K +1.03%G +0.150%3.8%2026-03-16 18:10
Coral🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -4.86%E -4.72%K -162.02%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV +14.48%E +0.965%K +1.03%G +0.150%3.8%2026-03-16 18:10
theScore Bet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -5.78%E -5.67%K -289.22%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -0.787%E -0.061%K -0.066%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-16 18:09
Bet Victor🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 91.51%EV -5.78%E -5.67%K -289.22%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.49%EV -16.05%E -1.46%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-16 18:10
Fliff🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 90.40%EV -5.78%E -5.67%K -289.22%G +0.000%9.60I 10.42%NM 9.60%EV -26.74%E -2.78%K -3.11%G +0.000%8.5%2026-03-16 18:07
888sport🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -6.71%E -6.64%K -670.81%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +14.48%E +0.965%K +1.03%G +0.150%5.7%2026-03-16 18:09
Betway🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -6.71%E -6.64%K -670.81%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +14.48%E +0.965%K +1.03%G +0.150%5.7%2026-03-16 18:10
888sport (SE)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -6.71%E -6.64%K -670.81%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +14.48%E +0.965%K +1.03%G +0.150%5.7%2026-03-16 18:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -6.71%E -6.64%K -670.81%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV +14.48%E +0.965%K +1.03%G +0.150%5.7%2026-03-16 18:10
Betsson🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 90.83%EV -6.71%E -6.64%K -670.81%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -23.68%E -2.37%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-16 18:09
NordicBet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 90.83%EV -6.71%E -6.64%K -670.81%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.17%EV -23.68%E -2.37%K -2.63%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-16 18:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.