Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Yuliia Starodubtseva v Lucrezia Stefanini

Kickoff: 2026-04-20 14:27 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

92%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Yuliia Starodubtseva (Local)

Prediction 91.78%1.09fair odd

EV +1.87%

Edge +1.69%

Kelly +17.00%

Growth +0.318%

assuming max odds 1.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

87.41%91.66%91.85%92.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.011.041.041.1199.01%95.90%96.15%90.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lucrezia Stefanini (Visit)

Prediction 8.22%12.16fair odd

EV +6.92%

Edge +0.533%

Kelly +0.577%

Growth +0.040%

assuming max odds 13.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

7.28%8.34%8.15%12.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

7.5010.7810.7713.0013.33%9.27%9.29%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Yuliia Starodubtseva (Local): 91.78%; Lucrezia Stefanini (Visit): 8.22%. For Lucrezia Stefanini (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 12.16. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 13.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.92%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
GTbets🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 88.20%EV +1.87%E +1.69%K +17.00%G +0.318%	8.30I 12.05%NM 11.80%EV -31.73%E -3.82%K -4.35%G +0.000%	2.1%	2026-04-20 14:15
PlayUp🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -0.883%E -0.817%K -11.04%G +0.000%	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -38.31%E -5.11%K -5.89%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-04-20 14:22
Pinnacle🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 90.76%EV -1.80%E -1.68%K -25.72%G +0.000%	10.51I 9.51%NM 9.24%EV -13.56%E -1.29%K -1.43%G +0.000%	3.0%	2026-04-20 14:25
Coral🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -1.80%E -1.68%K -25.72%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -30.09%E -3.54%K -4.01%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-04-20 14:24
William Hill🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -2.72%E -2.56%K -45.31%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -34.20%E -4.28%K -4.89%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-04-20 14:18
BoyleSports🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 92.53%EV -3.64%E -3.46%K -72.72%G +0.000%	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.47%EV +6.92%E +0.533%K +0.577%G +0.040%	2.9%	2026-04-20 14:25
theScore Bet🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 90.05%EV -3.64%E -3.46%K -72.72%G +0.000%	9.50I 10.53%NM 9.95%EV -21.86%E -2.30%K -2.57%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-04-20 14:24
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -4.55%E -4.38%K -113.85%G +0.000%	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV -9.53%E -0.866%K -0.953%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-04-20 14:25
LowVig.ag🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 91.01%EV -4.55%E -4.38%K -113.85%G +0.000%	10.53I 9.50%NM 8.99%EV -13.39%E -1.27%K -1.41%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-04-20 14:23
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 91.01%EV -4.55%E -4.38%K -113.85%G +0.000%	10.53I 9.50%NM 8.99%EV -13.39%E -1.27%K -1.41%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-04-20 14:24
Bovada🎯	1.03I 97.09%NM 92.66%EV -5.47%E -5.31%K -182.39%G +0.000%	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.34%EV +6.92%E +0.533%K +0.577%G +0.040%	4.8%	2026-04-20 14:24
888sport🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -6.39%E -6.26%K -319.47%G +0.000%	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV +6.92%E +0.533%K +0.577%G +0.040%	5.7%	2026-04-20 14:25
Betway🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -6.39%E -6.26%K -319.47%G +0.000%	13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV +6.92%E +0.533%K +0.577%G +0.040%	5.7%	2026-04-20 14:25
888sport (SE)🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -6.39%E -6.26%K -319.47%G +0.000%	12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -1.30%E -0.108%K -0.118%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-04-20 14:24
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -6.39%E -6.26%K -319.47%G +0.000%	12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -1.30%E -0.108%K -0.118%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-04-20 14:24
Betsson🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 91.85%EV -6.39%E -6.26%K -319.47%G +0.000%	11.50I 8.70%NM 8.15%EV -5.41%E -0.471%K -0.516%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-04-20 14:25
Fliff🎯	1.02I 98.04%NM 90.53%EV -6.39%E -6.26%K -319.47%G +0.000%	9.75I 10.26%NM 9.47%EV -19.81%E -2.03%K -2.26%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-04-20 14:24
NordicBet🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 92.52%EV -7.31%E -7.23%K -730.71%G +0.000%	12.50I 8.00%NM 7.48%EV +2.81%E +0.225%K +0.244%G +0.007%	7.0%	2026-04-20 14:24

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.05I 95.24%NM 94.34%	17.51I 5.71%NM 5.66%	0.9%	2026-04-20 14:25