Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Yuliia Starodubtseva v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova

Kickoff: 2026-04-21 13:06 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

71%

29%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Yuliia Starodubtseva (Local)

Prediction 71.30%1.40fair odd

EV -1.61%

Edge -1.16%

Kelly -4.23%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

66.99%71.24%71.27%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.201.311.311.3883.33%76.39%76.34%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (Visit)

Prediction 28.70%3.48fair odd

EV +14.80%

Edge +3.70%

Kelly +4.93%

Growth +0.730%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

23.08%28.76%28.73%33.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.803.323.304.0035.71%30.11%30.30%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Yuliia Starodubtseva (Local): 71.30%; Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (Visit): 28.70%. For Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.48. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.80%.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Coral🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -14.44%E -12.03%K -72.20%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV +14.80%E +3.70%K +4.93%G +0.730%	8.3%	2026-04-21 13:05
888sport (SE)🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -10.88%E -8.70%K -43.50%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV +7.63%E +2.03%K +2.77%G +0.212%	6.7%	2026-04-21 13:05
Pinnacle🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 72.90%EV -5.88%E -4.46%K -18.39%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 27.10%EV +1.89%E +0.532%K +0.740%G +0.014%	3.9%	2026-04-21 13:05
William Hill🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -8.02%E -6.22%K -27.67%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV +0.452%E +0.129%K +0.181%G +0.001%	6.1%	2026-04-21 12:57
888sport🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -7.31%E -5.62%K -24.37%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -2.42%E -0.711%K -1.01%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-04-21 13:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -7.31%E -5.62%K -24.37%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -2.42%E -0.711%K -1.01%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-04-21 13:05
Fliff🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 72.96%EV -10.16%E -8.07%K -39.09%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -2.42%E -0.711%K -1.01%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-04-21 13:05
LowVig.ag🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -3.03%E -2.23%K -8.42%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV -5.29%E -1.60%K -2.30%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-04-21 13:03
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -3.03%E -2.23%K -8.42%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV -5.29%E -1.60%K -2.30%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-04-21 13:03
ReBet🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.17%E -3.89%K -15.67%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.29%E -1.60%K -2.30%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-04-21 12:54
FanDuel🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -7.31%E -5.62%K -24.37%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -5.29%E -1.60%K -2.30%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-04-21 13:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -7.31%E -5.62%K -24.37%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV -5.29%E -1.60%K -2.30%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-04-21 13:05
Everygame🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 72.05%EV -8.74%E -6.83%K -31.20%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV -5.29%E -1.60%K -2.30%G +0.000%	8.4%	2026-04-21 12:55
PlayUp🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.17%E -3.89%K -15.67%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -6.72%E -2.07%K -2.99%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-04-21 13:01
NordicBet🎯	1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -5.88%E -4.46%K -18.39%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -6.72%E -2.07%K -2.99%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-04-21 13:05
theScore Bet🎯	1.31I 76.34%NM 71.27%EV -6.60%E -5.04%K -21.28%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV -6.72%E -2.07%K -2.99%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-04-21 13:05
Betway🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -3.75%E -2.77%K -10.70%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -8.16%E -2.55%K -3.71%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-04-21 13:05
GTbets🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 70.09%EV -4.46%E -3.33%K -13.11%G +0.000%	3.14I 31.85%NM 29.91%EV -9.88%E -3.15%K -4.62%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-04-21 12:55
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 70.44%EV -8.74%E -6.83%K -31.20%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 29.56%EV -12.46%E -4.09%K -6.08%G +0.000%	10.9%	2026-04-21 12:54
BoyleSports🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -5.17%E -3.89%K -15.67%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -13.90%E -4.63%K -6.95%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-04-21 13:05
TAB🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%EV -1.61%E -1.16%K -4.23%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV -19.64%E -7.01%K -10.91%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-04-21 13:05

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12%	3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%	0.6%	2026-04-21 13:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.40I 71.43%NM 69.89%	3.25I 30.77%NM 30.11%	2.2%	2026-04-21 13:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.40I 71.43%NM 69.57%	3.20I 31.25%NM 30.43%	2.7%	2026-04-21 13:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.97%	2.92I 34.25%NM 33.03%	3.7%	2026-04-21 13:05
Novig◎	1.21I 82.64%NM 75.85%	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%	9.0%	2026-04-21 13:05