Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Viktoriya Tomova v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova

Kickoff: 2026-04-20 15:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

57%

43%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Viktoriya Tomova (Local)

Prediction 57.46%1.74fair odd

EV +0.550%

Edge +0.314%

Kelly +0.733%

Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

52.70%57.22%57.59%60.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.551.641.651.7564.52%60.95%60.61%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (Visit)

Prediction 42.54%2.35fair odd

EV +2.10%

Edge +0.876%

Kelly +1.50%

Growth +0.032%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

39.24%42.78%42.41%47.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.952.212.232.4051.28%45.32%44.94%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Viktoriya Tomova (Local): 57.46%; Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (Visit): 42.54%. For Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.35. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.10%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
PlayUp🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -10.94%E -7.06%K -19.89%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV +2.10%E +0.876%K +1.50%G +0.032%	6.2%	2026-04-20 14:17
Pinnacle🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 58.33%EV -5.20%E -3.15%K -7.99%G +0.000%	2.31I 43.29%NM 41.67%EV -1.73%E -0.747%K -1.32%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-04-20 14:10
LowVig.ag🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -4.05%E -2.42%K -6.04%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -2.15%E -0.935%K -1.65%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-04-20 14:15
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 57.93%EV -4.05%E -2.42%K -6.04%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 42.07%EV -2.15%E -0.935%K -1.65%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-04-20 14:15
GTbets🎯	1.66I 60.24%NM 57.65%EV -4.62%E -2.78%K -7.00%G +0.000%	2.26I 44.25%NM 42.35%EV -3.85%E -1.70%K -3.06%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-04-20 14:09
888sport🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -8.07%E -5.04%K -13.45%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -4.28%E -1.90%K -3.42%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-04-20 14:20
NordicBet🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -8.07%E -5.04%K -13.45%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -4.28%E -1.90%K -3.42%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-04-20 14:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -8.07%E -5.04%K -13.45%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -4.28%E -1.90%K -3.42%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-04-20 14:20
William Hill🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -9.79%E -6.24%K -17.18%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -4.28%E -1.90%K -3.42%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-04-20 14:10
Betsson🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -5.20%E -3.15%K -7.99%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -6.41%E -2.91%K -5.34%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-04-20 14:20
theScore Bet🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -6.92%E -4.27%K -11.16%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.41%E -2.91%K -5.34%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-04-20 14:20
Everygame🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -8.07%E -5.04%K -13.45%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -6.41%E -2.91%K -5.34%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-04-20 14:10
Fliff🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -9.79%E -6.24%K -17.18%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -6.41%E -2.91%K -5.34%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-04-20 14:20
BoyleSports🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -4.05%E -2.42%K -6.04%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -8.53%E -3.97%K -7.42%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-04-20 14:19
Betway🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -0.599%E -0.346%K -0.821%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -10.66%E -5.08%K -9.69%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-04-20 14:20
888sport (SE)🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -4.05%E -2.42%K -6.04%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -10.66%E -5.08%K -9.69%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-04-20 14:20
Coral🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -2.32%E -1.37%K -3.32%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -12.79%E -6.24%K -12.18%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-04-20 14:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV +0.550%E +0.314%K +0.733%G +0.004%	1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -17.04%E -8.74%K -17.94%G +0.000%	8.4%	2026-04-20 14:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.72I 58.14%NM 57.64%	2.34I 42.74%NM 42.36%	0.9%	2026-04-20 14:20