Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tyra Caterina Grant v Veronika Erjavec

Kickoff: 2026-04-20 12:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tyra Caterina Grant (Local)

Prediction 30.92%3.23fair odd
EV +2.03%
Edge +0.616%
Kelly +0.885%
Growth +0.018%

assuming max odds 3.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.73%32.56%29.53%46.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.652.743.3050.00%37.78%36.50%30.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Veronika Erjavec (Visit)

Prediction 69.08%1.45fair odd
EV +20.20%
Edge +11.61%
Kelly +27.30%
Growth +5.51%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.62%67.44%70.47%71.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.311.511.481.7476.34%66.17%67.57%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tyra Caterina Grant (Local): 30.92%; Veronika Erjavec (Visit): 69.08%. For Veronika Erjavec (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.45. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.74, corresponding to a positive expected value of +20.20%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -33.21%E -15.38%K -28.63%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV +20.20%E +11.61%K +27.30%G +5.51%3.8%2026-04-20 11:45
BetOnline.ag🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -33.21%E -15.38%K -28.63%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV +20.20%E +11.61%K +27.30%G +5.51%3.8%2026-04-20 11:45
William Hill🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -38.16%E -19.08%K -38.16%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV +19.51%E +11.28%K +26.72%G +5.21%7.8%2026-04-20 06:00
PlayUp🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -35.07%E -16.70%K -31.88%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV +18.82%E +10.94%K +26.14%G +4.92%5.8%2026-04-20 11:45
GTbets🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -33.21%E -15.38%K -28.63%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV +17.44%E +10.26%K +24.91%G +4.34%5.1%2026-04-19 23:45
Everygame🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -38.16%E -19.08%K -38.16%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV +17.44%E +10.26%K +24.91%G +4.34%8.8%2026-04-20 05:59
Pinnacle🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 35.22%EV -15.28%E -5.58%K -8.78%G +0.000%1.49I 67.11%NM 64.78%EV +2.93%E +1.97%K +5.98%G +0.175%3.6%2026-04-20 11:55
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -22.70%E -9.08%K -15.13%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV +2.24%E +1.51%K +4.66%G +0.104%7.6%2026-04-20 11:53
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -13.43%E -4.79%K -7.46%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -3.29%E -2.35%K -8.22%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-20 11:54
BoyleSports🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -10.95%E -3.80%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -6.05%E -4.45%K -16.81%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-20 11:54
Betway🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV +2.03%E +0.616%K +0.885%G +0.018%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -8.12%E -6.11%K -24.62%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-20 11:55
888sport🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV +0.488%E +0.150%K +0.217%G +0.001%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -8.12%E -6.11%K -24.62%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-20 11:54
NordicBet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV +0.488%E +0.150%K +0.217%G +0.001%1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -8.81%E -6.68%K -27.54%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-20 11:55
Betsson🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.53%EV -2.60%E -0.827%K -1.21%G +0.000%1.32I 75.76%NM 70.47%EV -8.81%E -6.68%K -27.54%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-20 11:54
theScore Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 28.73%EV +0.488%E +0.150%K +0.217%G +0.001%1.31I 76.34%NM 71.27%EV -9.50%E -7.26%K -30.66%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-20 11:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets3.35I 29.85%NM 29.47%1.40I 71.43%NM 70.53%1.3%2026-04-20 11:55