Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Simona Waltert v Dominika Šalková

Kickoff: 2026-04-21 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

68%

32%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Simona Waltert (Local)

Prediction 68.23%1.47fair odd

EV +9.16%

Edge +5.73%

Kelly +15.27%

Growth +1.40%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

58.97%66.95%68.49%69.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.331.441.401.6075.19%69.48%71.43%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dominika Šalková (Visit)

Prediction 31.77%3.15fair odd

EV -1.50%

Edge -0.484%

Kelly -0.714%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

30.02%33.05%31.51%41.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.302.742.853.1043.48%36.51%35.09%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Simona Waltert (Local): 68.23%; Dominika Šalková (Visit): 31.77%. For Simona Waltert (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.47. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.16%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 60.10%EV +9.16%E +5.73%K +15.27%G +1.40%	2.41I 41.49%NM 39.90%EV -23.42%E -9.72%K -16.61%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-04-21 09:00
GTbets🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV +9.16%E +5.73%K +15.27%G +1.40%	2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -25.97%E -11.14%K -19.52%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-04-21 08:59
PlayUp🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV +9.16%E +5.73%K +15.27%G +1.40%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -26.92%E -11.70%K -20.71%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-04-21 09:05
Everygame🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV +5.75%E +3.71%K +10.45%G +0.601%	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -26.92%E -11.70%K -20.71%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-04-21 08:59
William Hill🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV +2.34%E +1.56%K +4.68%G +0.109%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -20.56%E -8.23%K -13.71%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-04-21 08:59
Bovada🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -1.76%E -1.22%K -3.99%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -9.44%E -3.31%K -5.10%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-04-21 09:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -4.48%E -3.20%K -11.21%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -11.03%E -3.94%K -6.13%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-04-21 09:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -4.48%E -3.20%K -11.21%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -12.62%E -4.59%K -7.21%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-04-21 09:10
Betway🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -5.85%E -4.24%K -15.39%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -4.68%E -1.56%K -2.34%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-04-21 09:10
FanDuel🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 67.38%EV -5.85%E -4.24%K -15.39%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.62%EV -9.44%E -3.31%K -5.10%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-04-21 09:10
888sport🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.21%E -5.30%K -20.04%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.68%E -1.56%K -2.34%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-04-21 09:10
888sport (SE)🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -7.21%E -5.30%K -20.04%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -4.68%E -1.56%K -2.34%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-04-21 09:10
Coral🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.90%E -5.85%K -22.56%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -4.68%E -1.56%K -2.34%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-04-21 09:10
Fliff🎯	1.34I 74.63%NM 68.40%EV -8.58%E -6.40%K -25.23%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 31.60%EV -7.85%E -2.71%K -4.13%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-04-21 09:10
theScore Bet🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -9.26%E -6.96%K -28.06%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -1.50%E -0.484%K -0.714%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-04-21 09:10

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.62I 61.73%NM 61.24%	2.56I 39.06%NM 38.76%	0.8%	2026-04-21 09:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.62I 61.73%NM 61.24%	2.56I 39.06%NM 38.76%	0.8%	2026-04-21 09:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.38I 72.46%NM 71.72%	3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28%	1.0%	2026-04-21 09:10
Smarkets◎	1.39I 71.94%NM 69.38%	3.15I 31.75%NM 30.62%	3.7%	2026-04-21 09:10
Novig◎	1.58I 63.29%NM 59.90%	2.36I 42.37%NM 40.10%	5.7%	2026-04-21 09:08