Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Robin Montgomery v Elvina Kalieva

Kickoff: 2026-04-07 08:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

45%

55%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Robin Montgomery (Local)

Prediction 45.17%2.21fair odd

EV +0.728%

Edge +0.327%

Kelly +0.592%

Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 2.23

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

43.54%45.17%45.17%45.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.102.172.172.2347.62%46.19%46.19%44.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Elvina Kalieva (Visit)

Prediction 54.83%1.82fair odd

EV -5.14%

Edge -2.97%

Kelly -7.05%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

54.83%54.83%54.83%56.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.721.731.731.7358.14%57.97%57.97%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Robin Montgomery (Local): 45.17%; Elvina Kalieva (Visit): 54.83%. For Robin Montgomery (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.21. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.23, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.728%.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
1xBet🎯	2.23I 44.84%NM 43.54%EV +0.728%E +0.327%K +0.592%G +0.004%	1.72I 58.14%NM 56.46%EV -5.69%E -3.31%K -7.91%G +0.000%	3.0%	2026-04-06 00:49
Betway🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.14%E -2.45%K -4.68%G +0.000%	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.14%E -2.97%K -7.05%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-04-05 21:44

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.