Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Panna Udvardy v Julieta Pareja

Kickoff: 2026-04-20 12:58 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

54%

46%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Panna Udvardy (Local)

Prediction 54.31%1.84fair odd

EV +8.61%

Edge +4.31%

Kelly +8.61%

Growth +0.742%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

46.67%54.15%52.63%60.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.531.711.662.0065.36%58.46%60.24%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Julieta Pareja (Visit)

Prediction 45.69%2.19fair odd

EV +8.75%

Edge +3.68%

Kelly +6.34%

Growth +0.555%

assuming max odds 2.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

39.13%45.85%47.37%53.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.752.122.202.3857.14%47.20%45.56%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Panna Udvardy (Local): 54.31%; Julieta Pareja (Visit): 45.69%. For Julieta Pareja (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.19. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.38, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.75%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Betsson🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV +8.61%E +4.31%K +8.61%G +0.742%	1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -20.04%E -11.45%K -26.72%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-04-20 12:55
NordicBet🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV +5.90%E +3.02%K +6.21%G +0.366%	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -17.75%E -9.86%K -22.19%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-04-20 12:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV +0.467%E +0.252%K +0.550%G +0.003%	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -15.47%E -8.36%K -18.20%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-04-20 12:55
theScore Bet🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -0.619%E -0.338%K -0.746%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -12.73%E -6.66%K -13.98%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-04-20 12:55
Betway🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.25%E -1.25%K -2.81%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.61%E -4.31%K -8.61%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-04-20 12:55
BoyleSports🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -2.25%E -1.25%K -2.81%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -12.73%E -6.66%K -13.98%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-04-20 12:54
Fliff🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 53.28%EV -7.14%E -4.17%K -10.05%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 46.72%EV -10.90%E -5.59%K -11.47%G +0.000%	9.8%	2026-04-20 12:55
Pinnacle🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00%EV -8.22%E -4.87%K -11.92%G +0.000%	2.24I 44.64%NM 43.00%EV +2.35%E +1.05%K +1.90%G +0.045%	3.8%	2026-04-20 12:55
LowVig.ag🎯	1.63I 61.35%NM 59.35%EV -11.48%E -7.04%K -18.22%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 40.65%EV +8.75%E +3.68%K +6.34%G +0.555%	3.4%	2026-04-20 12:53
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.63I 61.35%NM 59.35%EV -11.48%E -7.04%K -18.22%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 40.65%EV +8.75%E +3.68%K +6.34%G +0.555%	3.4%	2026-04-20 12:53
Everygame🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -12.02%E -7.42%K -19.39%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -1.76%E -0.818%K -1.53%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-04-20 12:40
GTbets🎯	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.61%EV -12.57%E -7.81%K -20.60%G +0.000%	2.28I 43.86%NM 41.39%EV +4.18%E +1.83%K +3.27%G +0.137%	6.0%	2026-04-20 12:38
PlayUp🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -13.11%E -8.19%K -21.85%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV +5.09%E +2.22%K +3.92%G +0.200%	6.0%	2026-04-20 12:53
William Hill🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -14.74%E -9.39%K -25.86%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV +2.81%E +1.25%K +2.25%G +0.063%	8.1%	2026-04-20 12:14
Coral🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.46%EV -15.82%E -10.21%K -28.77%G +0.000%	2.37I 42.19%NM 39.54%EV +8.29%E +3.50%K +6.05%G +0.502%	6.7%	2026-04-20 12:54
888sport🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -16.91%E -11.05%K -31.91%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV +8.75%E +3.68%K +6.34%G +0.555%	7.4%	2026-04-20 12:49

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.99I 50.25%NM 47.77%	1.82I 54.95%NM 52.23%	5.2%	2026-04-20 12:55