Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marina Bassols Ribera v Anhelina Kalinina

Kickoff: 2026-04-20 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

12%

88%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marina Bassols Ribera (Local)

Prediction 12.05%8.30fair odd

EV +8.43%

Edge +0.937%

Kelly +1.05%

Growth +0.089%

assuming max odds 9.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

10.54%13.25%11.92%21.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

4.336.656.709.0023.09%15.03%14.93%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Anhelina Kalinina (Visit)

Prediction 87.95%1.14fair odd

EV +5.54%

Edge +4.62%

Kelly +27.71%

Growth +1.54%

assuming max odds 1.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

78.30%86.75%88.08%89.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.051.111.081.2095.24%90.25%92.59%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Marina Bassols Ribera (Local): 12.05%; Anhelina Kalinina (Visit): 87.95%. For Marina Bassols Ribera (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.30. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.43%.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
William Hill🎯	4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -47.83%E -11.05%K -14.36%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV +5.54%E +4.62%K +27.71%G +1.54%	6.4%	2026-04-20 16:08
Pinnacle🎯	5.14I 19.46%NM 18.80%EV -38.07%E -7.41%K -9.20%G +0.000%	1.19I 84.03%NM 81.20%EV +4.66%E +3.92%K +24.54%G +1.14%	3.5%	2026-04-20 16:10
PlayUp🎯	4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -42.77%E -9.00%K -11.41%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV +3.78%E +3.21%K +21.02%G +0.795%	5.8%	2026-04-20 16:10
LowVig.ag🎯	5.33I 18.76%NM 17.87%EV -35.78%E -6.71%K -8.26%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 82.13%EV +2.02%E +1.75%K +12.65%G +0.256%	5.0%	2026-04-20 16:13
BetOnline.ag🎯	5.33I 18.76%NM 17.87%EV -35.78%E -6.71%K -8.26%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 82.13%EV +2.02%E +1.75%K +12.65%G +0.256%	5.0%	2026-04-20 16:13
Everygame🎯	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -45.78%E -10.17%K -13.08%G +0.000%	1.16I 86.21%NM 79.51%EV +2.02%E +1.75%K +12.65%G +0.256%	8.4%	2026-04-20 16:09
Coral🎯	5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -36.75%E -7.00%K -8.65%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV +0.265%E +0.233%K +1.89%G +0.005%	6.8%	2026-04-20 16:17
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	5.25I 19.05%NM 17.84%EV -36.75%E -7.00%K -8.65%G +0.000%	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.16%EV +0.265%E +0.233%K +1.89%G +0.005%	6.8%	2026-04-20 16:16
Bovada🎯	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -21.69%E -3.34%K -3.94%G +0.000%	1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -1.49%E -1.33%K -12.45%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-04-20 16:19
FanDuel🎯	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.37%EV -15.66%E -2.24%K -2.61%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 86.63%EV -5.01%E -4.64%K -62.65%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-04-20 16:20
TAB🎯	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -21.69%E -3.34%K -3.94%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -5.01%E -4.64%K -62.65%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-04-20 16:20
Betway🎯	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +8.43%E +0.937%K +1.05%G +0.089%	1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -5.89%E -5.51%K -84.16%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-04-20 16:20
theScore Bet🎯	7.75I 12.90%NM 12.13%EV -6.63%E -0.855%K -0.982%G +0.000%	1.07I 93.46%NM 87.87%EV -5.89%E -5.51%K -84.16%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-04-20 16:20
BoyleSports🎯	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV +8.43%E +0.937%K +1.05%G +0.089%	1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -6.77%E -6.39%K -112.85%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-04-20 16:20
888sport🎯	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -3.62%E -0.452%K -0.516%G +0.000%	1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -6.77%E -6.39%K -112.85%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-04-20 16:20
NordicBet🎯	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -3.62%E -0.452%K -0.516%G +0.000%	1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -6.77%E -6.39%K -112.85%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-04-20 16:20
888sport (SE)🎯	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -3.62%E -0.452%K -0.516%G +0.000%	1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -6.77%E -6.39%K -112.85%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-04-20 16:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -3.62%E -0.452%K -0.516%G +0.000%	1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -6.77%E -6.39%K -112.85%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-04-20 16:20
Fliff🎯	6.90I 14.49%NM 13.32%EV -16.87%E -2.44%K -2.86%G +0.000%	1.06I 94.34%NM 86.68%EV -6.77%E -6.39%K -112.85%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-04-20 16:20
Betsson🎯	8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV +2.41%E +0.283%K +0.321%G +0.008%	1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -7.65%E -7.29%K -153.01%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-04-20 16:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	9.40I 10.64%NM 10.56%	1.11I 90.09%NM 89.44%	0.7%	2026-04-20 16:20
Novig◎	8.26I 12.11%NM 11.18%	1.04I 96.15%NM 88.82%	8.3%	2026-04-20 16:20