Language:English
Maria Camila Osorio Serrano v Naomi Osaka
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Maria Camila Osorio Serrano (Local)
Prediction 44.42%2.25fair odd
EV +11.05%
Edge +4.42%
Kelly +7.36%
Growth +0.813%
assuming max odds 2.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.81%44.24%44.67%51.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.802.082.102.5055.56%48.08%47.62%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Naomi Osaka (Visit)
Prediction 55.58%1.80fair odd
EV +11.72%
Edge +5.83%
Kelly +11.60%
Growth +1.36%
assuming max odds 2.01
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.33%55.76%55.33%62.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.731.712.0166.67%57.86%58.48%49.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Maria Camila Osorio Serrano (Local): 44.42%; Naomi Osaka (Visit): 55.58%. For Naomi Osaka (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.80. 19 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.01, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.72%.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.67%EV -16.49%E -8.77%K -18.74%G +0.000% | 2.01I 49.75%NM 48.33%EV +11.72%E +5.83%K +11.60%G +1.36% | 2.9% | 2026-04-23 15:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.52%EV -15.61%E -8.21%K -17.34%G +0.000% | 1.94I 51.55%NM 49.48%EV +7.83%E +4.04%K +8.33%G +0.652% | 4.2% | 2026-04-23 15:05 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -15.16%E -7.94%K -16.66%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV +6.16%E +3.23%K +6.77%G +0.417% | 4.7% | 2026-04-23 15:03 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -15.16%E -7.94%K -16.66%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV +6.16%E +3.23%K +6.77%G +0.417% | 4.7% | 2026-04-23 15:08 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -15.16%E -7.94%K -16.66%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV +6.16%E +3.23%K +6.77%G +0.417% | 4.7% | 2026-04-23 15:09 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -15.16%E -7.94%K -16.66%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV +6.16%E +3.23%K +6.77%G +0.417% | 4.7% | 2026-04-23 15:03 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -15.61%E -8.21%K -17.34%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV +6.16%E +3.23%K +6.77%G +0.417% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 14:59 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 48.84%EV -11.61%E -5.83%K -11.72%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 51.16%EV +5.61%E +2.95%K +6.23%G +0.349% | 2.9% | 2026-04-23 14:59 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV -15.61%E -8.21%K -17.34%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 50.00%EV +5.61%E +2.95%K +6.23%G +0.349% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 15:06 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -20.05%E -11.14%K -25.06%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV +5.61%E +2.95%K +6.23%G +0.349% | 8.2% | 2026-04-23 15:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.13%EV -16.49%E -8.77%K -18.74%G +0.000% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 49.87%EV +5.05%E +2.67%K +5.67%G +0.286% | 6.1% | 2026-04-23 15:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -16.49%E -8.77%K -18.74%G +0.000% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV +4.49%E +2.39%K +5.11%G +0.229% | 6.4% | 2026-04-23 15:05 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -16.94%E -9.06%K -19.47%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV +3.94%E +2.11%K +4.53%G +0.178% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 15:09 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -12.94%E -6.60%K -13.48%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV +2.83%E +1.53%K +3.32%G +0.094% | 5.1% | 2026-04-23 15:14 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -13.38%E -6.86%K -14.09%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV +2.83%E +1.53%K +3.32%G +0.094% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 15:10 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -15.16%E -7.94%K -16.66%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV +1.71%E +0.937%K +2.07%G +0.035% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 15:14 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -15.16%E -7.94%K -16.66%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV +1.71%E +0.937%K +2.07%G +0.035% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 15:14 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%EV -16.49%E -8.77%K -18.74%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.67%EV +1.71%E +0.937%K +2.07%G +0.035% | 7.8% | 2026-04-23 15:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.88I 53.19%NM 49.33%EV -16.49%E -8.77%K -18.74%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.67%EV +1.71%E +0.937%K +2.07%G +0.035% | 7.8% | 2026-04-23 15:04 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -6.72%E -3.20%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -1.62%E -0.916%K -2.10%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-23 15:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -11.16%E -5.58%K -11.16%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -2.73%E -1.56%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-23 15:14 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.93I 51.81%NM 47.55%EV -14.27%E -7.40%K -15.35%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.45%EV -2.73%E -1.56%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-23 15:14 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.72%E -3.20%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -3.84%E -2.22%K -5.27%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 15:14 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -4.50%E -2.09%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -4.40%E -2.56%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-23 15:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.83%E -2.75%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.40%E -2.56%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 15:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.83%E -2.75%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.40%E -2.56%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 15:14 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.83%E -2.75%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.40%E -2.56%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 15:09 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.83%E -2.75%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.40%E -2.56%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 15:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -5.83%E -2.75%K -5.21%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -4.40%E -2.56%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 15:09 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.72%E -3.20%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.96%E -2.90%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-23 15:15 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.72%E -3.20%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.96%E -2.90%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-23 15:14 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 46.72%EV -13.38%E -6.86%K -14.09%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.28%EV -4.96%E -2.90%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-23 15:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.72%E -3.20%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.51%E -3.24%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-23 15:09 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.72%E -3.20%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.51%E -3.24%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-23 15:14 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.72%E -3.20%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.51%E -3.24%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-23 15:14 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.72%E -3.20%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.51%E -3.24%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-23 15:09 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.72%E -3.20%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.51%E -3.24%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-23 15:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.94%E -4.36%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.51%E -3.24%K -7.87%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-23 15:10 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.28%E -1.04%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.18%E -4.30%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 15:14 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.50%E -2.09%K -3.91%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -7.18%E -4.30%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-23 15:14 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.72%E -3.20%K -6.11%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.18%E -4.30%K -10.71%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-23 15:14 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.74%EV -8.94%E -4.36%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 55.26%EV -7.73%E -4.66%K -11.72%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-23 15:09 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -8.94%E -4.36%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -8.29%E -5.02%K -12.75%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-04-23 15:14 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.66%EV -10.27%E -5.09%K -10.07%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.34%EV -9.40%E -5.77%K -14.92%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-04-23 15:14 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV +2.16%E +0.940%K +1.66%G +0.036% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -9.96%E -6.15%K -16.06%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-23 15:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV +2.16%E +0.940%K +1.66%G +0.036% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -9.96%E -6.15%K -16.06%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-23 15:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -2.28%E -1.04%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -9.96%E -6.15%K -16.06%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-23 15:09 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.75%EV -11.16%E -5.58%K -11.16%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.25%EV -9.96%E -6.15%K -16.06%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-04-23 15:14 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -2.28%E -1.04%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -10.51%E -6.53%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-23 15:14 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -2.28%E -1.04%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -10.51%E -6.53%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-23 15:14 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -0.059%E -0.026%K -0.047%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -11.07%E -6.92%K -18.45%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-23 15:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV +6.60%E +2.75%K +4.72%G +0.312% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -12.74%E -8.11%K -22.35%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 15:15 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV +2.16%E +0.940%K +1.66%G +0.036% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -12.74%E -8.11%K -22.35%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-23 15:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV +2.16%E +0.940%K +1.66%G +0.036% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -12.74%E -8.11%K -22.35%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-04-23 15:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 41.32%EV -0.947%E -0.425%K -0.770%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.68%EV -12.74%E -8.11%K -22.35%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-23 15:15 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.49%EV -2.28%E -1.04%K -1.90%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 58.51%EV -13.29%E -8.52%K -23.74%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-23 15:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV +2.16%E +0.940%K +1.66%G +0.036% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -13.85%E -8.93%K -25.18%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-23 15:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV +5.72%E +2.40%K +4.14%G +0.237% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -14.96%E -9.78%K -28.23%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-04-23 15:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV +11.05%E +4.42%K +7.36%G +0.813% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -15.52%E -10.21%K -29.84%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-23 15:15 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV +8.83%E +3.60%K +6.09%G +0.537% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -16.63%E -11.09%K -33.26%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-04-23 15:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 49.25% | 1.96I 51.02%NM 50.75% | 0.5% | 2026-04-23 15:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.23% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 54.77% | 1.4% | 2026-04-23 15:14 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 51.17% | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.83% | 4.0% | 2026-04-23 15:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26% | 4.1% | 2026-04-23 15:15 |
| Novig◎ | 2.31I 43.29%NM 40.62% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.38% | 6.6% | 2026-04-23 15:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.81% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 55.19% | 10.5% | 2026-04-23 15:15 |