Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ksenia Efremova v Lulu Sun

Kickoff: 2026-04-20 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

37%

63%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ksenia Efremova (Local)

Prediction 37.45%2.67fair odd

EV +7.85%

Edge +2.73%

Kelly +4.18%

Growth +0.328%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

32.71%37.50%35.80%42.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.252.552.602.8844.44%39.22%38.46%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Lulu Sun (Visit)

Prediction 62.55%1.60fair odd

EV +5.09%

Edge +3.03%

Kelly +7.48%

Growth +0.381%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

57.47%62.50%64.20%67.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.381.491.481.6872.46%66.98%67.57%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ksenia Efremova (Local): 37.45%; Lulu Sun (Visit): 62.55%. For Ksenia Efremova (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.67. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.88, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.85%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	2.27I 44.05%NM 42.53%EV -14.99%E -6.60%K -11.81%G +0.000%	1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV +5.09%E +3.03%K +7.48%G +0.381%	3.6%	2026-04-20 17:55
FanDuel🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV -15.74%E -7.00%K -12.59%G +0.000%	1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -0.543%E -0.341%K -0.920%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-04-20 17:54
888sport🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -13.87%E -6.03%K -10.67%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -1.79%E -1.14%K -3.15%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-04-20 17:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -10.12%E -4.22%K -7.23%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -4.30%E -2.81%K -8.11%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-04-20 17:55
TAB🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -10.12%E -4.22%K -7.23%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.17%E -4.11%K -12.34%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-04-20 17:55
Bovada🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41%EV +1.11%E +0.411%K +0.653%G +0.007%	1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59%EV -7.42%E -5.02%K -15.47%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-04-20 17:53
Coral🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -6.38%E -2.55%K -4.25%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -7.42%E -5.02%K -15.47%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-04-20 17:55
Betway🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV +2.98%E +1.08%K +1.70%G +0.051%	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -9.30%E -6.41%K -20.67%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-04-20 17:55
NordicBet🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV +1.11%E +0.411%K +0.653%G +0.007%	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -9.30%E -6.41%K -20.67%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-04-20 17:54
Betsson🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV +1.11%E +0.411%K +0.653%G +0.007%	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -9.30%E -6.41%K -20.67%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-04-20 17:54
theScore Bet🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -2.63%E -1.01%K -1.65%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -9.30%E -6.41%K -20.67%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-04-20 17:55
BoyleSports🎯	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV +7.85%E +2.73%K +4.18%G +0.328%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -12.43%E -8.88%K -31.07%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-04-20 17:55
Fliff🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 33.82%EV +1.11%E +0.411%K +0.653%G +0.007%	1.38I 72.46%NM 66.18%EV -13.68%E -9.91%K -36.00%G +0.000%	9.5%	2026-04-20 17:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	2.64I 37.88%NM 37.74%	1.60I 62.50%NM 62.26%	0.4%	2026-04-20 17:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	2.30I 43.48%NM 42.36%	1.69I 59.17%NM 57.64%	2.6%	2026-04-20 17:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	2.42I 41.32%NM 38.42%	1.51I 66.23%NM 61.58%	7.5%	2026-04-20 17:55
Novig◎	2.63I 38.02%NM 34.90%	1.41I 70.92%NM 65.10%	8.9%	2026-04-20 17:55