Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Francesca Jones v Elizabeth Mandlik

Kickoff: 2026-04-06 11:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

68%

32%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Francesca Jones (Local)

Prediction 67.62%1.48fair odd

EV +0.754%

Edge +0.506%

Kelly +1.54%

Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 1.49

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

65.19%67.62%66.27%70.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.351.411.401.4974.07%71.14%71.43%67.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Elizabeth Mandlik (Visit)

Prediction 32.38%3.09fair odd

EV +3.62%

Edge +1.13%

Kelly +1.64%

Growth +0.059%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.67%32.38%33.73%34.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.752.822.753.2036.36%35.46%36.36%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Francesca Jones (Local): 67.62%; Elizabeth Mandlik (Visit): 32.38%. For Elizabeth Mandlik (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.09. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.62%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Betway🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -8.71%E -6.45%K -24.89%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV +3.62%E +1.13%K +1.64%G +0.059%	5.3%	2026-04-06 01:45
1xBet🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 65.19%EV +0.754%E +0.506%K +1.54%G +0.012%	2.79I 35.84%NM 34.81%EV -9.66%E -3.46%K -5.40%G +0.000%	3.0%	2026-04-06 00:55
BoyleSports🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.33%E -3.81%K -13.33%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.95%E -3.98%K -6.26%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-04-06 01:25
888sport🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.33%E -3.81%K -13.33%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.95%E -3.98%K -6.26%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-04-05 19:34
William Hill🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.33%E -3.81%K -13.33%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.95%E -3.98%K -6.26%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-04-05 19:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.33%E -3.81%K -13.33%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.95%E -3.98%K -6.26%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-04-05 22:30
888sport (SE)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.33%E -3.81%K -13.33%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.95%E -3.98%K -6.26%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-04-06 00:34

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.