Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
assuming max odds 2.21
assuming max odds 2.05
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Elvina Kalieva (Local): 49.94%; Suzan Lamens (Visit): 50.06%. For Elvina Kalieva (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.00. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.21, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.37%.
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.48%EV +10.37%E +4.69%K +8.57%G +0.888% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.52%EV -14.90%E -8.76%K -21.28%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-04-20 10:10 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV +7.37%E +3.43%K +6.41%G +0.472% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -12.90%E -7.41%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-20 10:07 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV +7.37%E +3.43%K +6.41%G +0.472% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -12.90%E -7.41%K -17.43%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-04-20 10:06 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV +4.87%E +2.32%K +4.43%G +0.216% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -17.40%E -10.55%K -26.77%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-20 10:03 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.09I 47.85%NM 46.68%EV +4.37%E +2.09%K +4.01%G +0.176% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 53.32%EV -8.39%E -4.58%K -10.11%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-04-20 10:07 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV +2.38%E +1.16%K +2.26%G +0.054% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -12.40%E -7.08%K -16.53%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-20 10:08 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -0.120%E -0.060%K -0.120%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -13.40%E -7.74%K -18.35%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-20 10:04 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.61%E -3.54%K -7.60%G +0.000% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -6.39%E -3.42%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-20 10:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.61%E -4.11%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.39%E -3.99%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-20 10:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.61%E -4.11%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.39%E -3.99%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-20 10:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.61%E -4.11%K -8.95%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -7.39%E -3.99%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-04-20 10:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -10.11%E -5.62%K -12.63%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -4.89%E -2.57%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-20 10:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -10.11%E -5.62%K -12.63%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -4.89%E -2.57%K -5.43%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-20 10:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -12.60%E -7.20%K -16.81%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV +2.62%E +1.28%K +2.50%G +0.066% | 5.9% | 2026-04-20 10:20 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -12.60%E -7.20%K -16.81%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV +0.120%E +0.060%K +0.120%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-20 10:20 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -13.60%E -7.86%K -18.63%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV +2.62%E +1.28%K +2.50%G +0.066% | 6.6% | 2026-04-20 10:20 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -13.60%E -7.86%K -18.63%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV +0.120%E +0.060%K +0.120%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-20 10:20 |
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.97I 50.76%NM 50.38% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.62% | 0.8% | 2026-04-20 10:20 |