Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Donna Vekic v Leolia Jeanjean

Kickoff: 2026-04-20 11:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

79%

21%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Donna Vekic (Local)

Prediction 78.83%1.27fair odd

EV -0.680%

Edge -0.540%

Kelly -2.62%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

75.45%78.92%78.85%82.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.141.201.201.2687.72%83.21%83.33%79.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Leolia Jeanjean (Visit)

Prediction 21.17%4.72fair odd

EV +10.11%

Edge +1.94%

Kelly +2.41%

Growth +0.243%

assuming max odds 5.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

17.98%21.08%21.15%24.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.754.344.405.2026.67%23.04%22.73%19.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Donna Vekic (Local): 78.83%; Leolia Jeanjean (Visit): 21.17%. For Leolia Jeanjean (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.72. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.11%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
theScore Bet🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 82.02%EV -10.14%E -8.89%K -72.42%G +0.000%	5.20I 19.23%NM 17.98%EV +10.11%E +1.94%K +2.41%G +0.243%	7.0%	2026-04-20 10:20
Betway🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -6.99%E -5.92%K -38.81%G +0.000%	4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV +0.580%E +0.122%K +0.155%G +0.001%	5.8%	2026-04-20 10:20
GTbets🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 78.55%EV -2.26%E -1.82%K -9.40%G +0.000%	4.54I 22.03%NM 21.45%EV -3.87%E -0.852%K -1.09%G +0.000%	2.7%	2026-04-20 10:10
888sport🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -7.77%E -6.64%K -45.73%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -4.71%E -1.05%K -1.35%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-04-20 10:20
888sport (SE)🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -7.77%E -6.64%K -45.73%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -4.71%E -1.05%K -1.35%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-04-20 10:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 79.37%EV -7.77%E -6.64%K -45.73%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 20.63%EV -4.71%E -1.05%K -1.35%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-04-20 10:20
Coral🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -5.41%E -4.51%K -27.05%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -6.83%E -1.55%K -2.01%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-04-20 10:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -6.99%E -5.92%K -38.81%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -6.83%E -1.55%K -2.01%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-04-20 10:20
Betsson🎯	1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -6.99%E -5.92%K -38.81%G +0.000%	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -6.83%E -1.55%K -2.01%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-04-20 10:19
BoyleSports🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 78.73%EV -7.77%E -6.64%K -45.73%G +0.000%	4.33I 23.09%NM 21.27%EV -8.31%E -1.92%K -2.50%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-04-20 10:20
NordicBet🎯	1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -5.41%E -4.51%K -27.05%G +0.000%	4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV -10.01%E -2.35%K -3.08%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-04-20 10:20
LowVig.ag🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 77.08%EV -2.26%E -1.82%K -9.40%G +0.000%	4.17I 23.98%NM 22.92%EV -11.70%E -2.81%K -3.69%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-04-20 10:10
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.24I 80.65%NM 77.08%EV -2.26%E -1.82%K -9.40%G +0.000%	4.17I 23.98%NM 22.92%EV -11.70%E -2.81%K -3.69%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-04-20 10:10
Pinnacle🎯	1.26I 79.37%NM 76.32%EV -0.680%E -0.540%K -2.62%G +0.000%	4.06I 24.63%NM 23.68%EV -14.03%E -3.46%K -4.59%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-04-20 10:10
William Hill🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -3.83%E -3.14%K -17.42%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -15.30%E -3.83%K -5.10%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-04-20 10:08
PlayUp🎯	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -1.47%E -1.17%K -5.87%G +0.000%	3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -18.48%E -4.80%K -6.48%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-04-20 10:10
Everygame🎯	1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -3.83%E -3.14%K -17.42%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -20.59%E -5.49%K -7.49%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-04-20 10:02

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.22I 81.97%NM 81.29%	5.30I 18.87%NM 18.71%	0.8%	2026-04-20 10:20