Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Diane Parry v Sloane Stephens

Kickoff: 2026-04-20 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

56%

44%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Diane Parry (Local)

Prediction 56.16%1.78fair odd

EV +3.89%

Edge +2.10%

Kelly +4.57%

Growth +0.178%

assuming max odds 1.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

50.00%56.46%56.28%66.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.381.671.671.8572.46%60.02%59.88%54.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sloane Stephens (Visit)

Prediction 43.84%2.28fair odd

EV +22.76%

Edge +8.13%

Kelly +12.65%

Growth +2.88%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

33.01%43.54%43.72%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.852.182.102.8054.05%45.91%47.62%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Diane Parry (Local): 56.16%; Sloane Stephens (Visit): 43.84%. For Sloane Stephens (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.28. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +22.76%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
TAB🎯	1.38I 72.46%NM 66.99%EV -22.51%E -16.31%K -59.22%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.01%EV +22.76%E +8.13%K +12.65%G +2.88%	8.2%	2026-04-20 15:54
Pinnacle🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 64.45%EV -15.77%E -10.51%K -31.53%G +0.000%	2.72I 36.76%NM 35.55%EV +19.26%E +7.08%K +11.20%G +2.16%	3.4%	2026-04-20 15:55
Bovada🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -13.52%E -8.78%K -25.04%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV +11.80%E +4.63%K +7.61%G +0.899%	4.2%	2026-04-20 15:52
Betway🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -7.34%E -4.45%K -11.30%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -1.35%E -0.600%K -1.08%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-04-20 15:55
BoyleSports🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.22%E -3.72%K -9.28%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.73%E -2.67%K -4.99%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-04-20 15:55
Betsson🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.34%E -4.45%K -11.30%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.73%E -2.67%K -4.99%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-04-20 15:55
NordicBet🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.34%E -4.45%K -11.30%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.73%E -2.67%K -4.99%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-04-20 15:55
theScore Bet🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.22%E -3.72%K -9.28%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.93%E -3.77%K -7.21%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-04-20 15:54
Fliff🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -9.03%E -5.57%K -14.56%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 43.55%EV -7.93%E -3.77%K -7.21%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-04-20 15:55
FanDuel🎯	1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -3.97%E -2.32%K -5.60%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -10.12%E -4.94%K -9.64%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-04-20 15:54
Coral🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -4.54%E -2.67%K -6.48%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -10.12%E -4.94%K -9.64%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-04-20 15:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -4.54%E -2.67%K -6.48%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -10.12%E -4.94%K -9.64%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-04-20 15:55
888sport🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV +3.89%E +2.10%K +4.57%G +0.178%	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -18.89%E -10.21%K -22.22%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-04-20 15:55
888sport (SE)🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV +3.89%E +2.10%K +4.57%G +0.178%	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -18.89%E -10.21%K -22.22%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-04-20 15:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV +3.89%E +2.10%K +4.57%G +0.178%	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -18.89%E -10.21%K -22.22%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-04-20 15:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.80I 55.56%NM 55.00%	2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00%	1.0%	2026-04-20 15:55
Novig◎	1.72I 58.14%NM 54.26%	2.04I 49.02%NM 45.74%	7.2%	2026-04-20 15:55