Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Anna Blinkova v Nuria Brancaccio

Kickoff: 2026-04-20 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Anna Blinkova (Local)

Prediction 58.59%1.71fair odd
EV -3.32%
Edge -2.01%
Kelly -5.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
57.59%58.71%58.52%60.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.611.611.6564.52%62.20%62.11%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nuria Brancaccio (Visit)

Prediction 41.41%2.41fair odd
EV +1.45%
Edge +0.592%
Kelly +1.00%
Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 2.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.66%41.29%41.48%42.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.292.252.4545.45%43.72%44.44%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Anna Blinkova (Local): 58.59%; Nuria Brancaccio (Visit): 41.41%. For Nuria Brancaccio (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.41. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.45%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -5.67%E -3.52%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV +1.45%E +0.592%K +1.00%G +0.015%2.9%2026-04-20 09:55
BetOnline.ag🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.34%EV -5.67%E -3.52%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.66%EV +1.45%E +0.592%K +1.00%G +0.015%2.9%2026-04-20 09:55
Pinnacle🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -5.08%E -3.14%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -1.45%E -0.608%K -1.05%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-20 09:20
GTbets🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -6.25%E -3.91%K -10.42%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -2.69%E -1.14%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-19 23:45
Betsson🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -4.50%E -2.76%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -4.76%E -2.07%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-20 09:30
NordicBet🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 58.52%EV -4.50%E -2.76%K -7.14%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.48%EV -4.76%E -2.07%K -3.66%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-20 09:30
PlayUp🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.25%E -3.91%K -10.42%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.76%E -2.07%K -3.66%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-20 09:20
Everygame🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -9.18%E -5.92%K -16.70%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -4.76%E -2.07%K -3.66%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-20 09:25
Betway🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.32%E -2.01%K -5.11%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.83%E -3.04%K -5.46%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-20 09:25
theScore Bet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -5.67%E -3.52%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.83%E -3.04%K -5.46%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-19 23:55
Coral🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.25%E -3.91%K -10.42%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.83%E -3.04%K -5.46%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-20 09:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.25%E -3.91%K -10.42%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.83%E -3.04%K -5.46%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-20 09:25
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -8.01%E -5.10%K -14.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -6.83%E -3.04%K -5.46%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-20 09:35
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.08%E -3.14%K -8.20%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -8.90%E -4.05%K -7.42%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-20 06:40
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -5.67%E -3.52%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -8.90%E -4.05%K -7.42%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-20 06:39
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -5.67%E -3.52%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -8.90%E -4.05%K -7.42%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-20 06:39
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -5.67%E -3.52%K -9.29%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -8.90%E -4.05%K -7.42%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-20 06:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.59I 62.89%NM 61.69%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.31%2.0%2026-04-20 09:55