Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Anna Blinkova v Elvina Kalieva

Kickoff: 2026-04-21 11:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

39%

61%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Anna Blinkova (Local)

Prediction 38.69%2.58fair odd

EV +6.40%

Edge +2.33%

Kelly +3.66%

Growth +0.234%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

34.52%38.94%39.13%44.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.162.402.382.7546.30%41.68%42.02%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Elvina Kalieva (Visit)

Prediction 61.31%1.63fair odd

EV +6.67%

Edge +3.84%

Kelly +9.02%

Growth +0.602%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

55.38%61.06%60.87%65.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.451.541.531.7468.97%64.77%65.36%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Anna Blinkova (Local): 38.69%; Elvina Kalieva (Visit): 61.31%. For Elvina Kalieva (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.63. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.74, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.67%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -16.42%E -7.60%K -14.16%G +0.000%	1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV +6.67%E +3.84%K +9.02%G +0.602%	3.8%	2026-04-21 10:45
Bovada🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -12.94%E -5.75%K -10.35%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV +2.38%E +1.43%K +3.56%G +0.085%	4.3%	2026-04-21 10:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -12.94%E -5.75%K -10.35%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -1.91%E -1.19%K -3.18%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-04-21 10:45
NordicBet🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -9.07%E -3.86%K -6.72%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -4.97%E -3.21%K -9.04%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-04-21 10:45
Betsson🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -9.07%E -3.86%K -6.72%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -4.97%E -3.21%K -9.04%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-04-21 10:45
FanDuel🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.59%EV -9.07%E -3.86%K -6.72%G +0.000%	1.54I 64.94%NM 60.41%EV -5.59%E -3.63%K -10.35%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-04-21 10:45
Coral🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -7.14%E -2.97%K -5.10%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -6.20%E -4.05%K -11.70%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-04-21 10:45
BoyleSports🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -7.91%E -3.32%K -5.73%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.20%E -4.05%K -11.70%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-04-21 10:45
888sport🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -3.27%E -1.31%K -2.18%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -8.04%E -5.36%K -16.08%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-04-21 10:45
theScore Bet🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -3.27%E -1.31%K -2.18%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -8.04%E -5.36%K -16.08%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-04-21 10:45
888sport (SE)🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -3.27%E -1.31%K -2.18%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -8.04%E -5.36%K -16.08%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-04-21 10:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -3.27%E -1.31%K -2.18%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -8.04%E -5.36%K -16.08%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-04-21 10:45
TAB🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -7.14%E -2.97%K -5.10%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.04%E -5.36%K -16.08%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-04-21 10:45
Fliff🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -9.07%E -3.86%K -6.72%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%EV -8.04%E -5.36%K -16.08%G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-04-21 10:45
Betway🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV +6.40%E +2.33%K +3.66%G +0.234%	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -11.10%E -7.66%K -24.68%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-04-21 10:45

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	2.78I 35.97%NM 35.50%	1.53I 65.36%NM 64.50%	1.3%	2026-04-21 10:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	2.18I 45.87%NM 44.39%	1.74I 57.47%NM 55.61%	3.3%	2026-04-21 10:45
Smarkets◎	2.54I 39.37%NM 37.59%	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.41%	4.7%	2026-04-21 10:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	2.24I 44.64%NM 41.97%	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.03%	6.4%	2026-04-21 10:45
Novig◎	2.49I 40.16%NM 36.96%	1.46I 68.49%NM 63.04%	8.7%	2026-04-21 10:45