Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alycia Parks v Elina Avanesyan

Kickoff: 2026-04-20 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alycia Parks (Local)

Prediction 94.79%1.06fair odd
EV -0.474%
Edge -0.452%
Kelly -9.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
88.43%94.58%95.02%97.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.011.011.05100.00%98.63%99.01%95.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Elina Avanesyan (Visit)

Prediction 5.21%19.18fair odd
EV +139.83%
Edge +3.04%
Kelly +3.11%
Growth +4.35%

assuming max odds 46.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
2.13%5.42%4.98%11.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.9523.6526.0046.0012.58%4.23%3.85%2.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alycia Parks (Local): 94.79%; Elina Avanesyan (Visit): 5.21%. For Elina Avanesyan (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 19.18. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 46.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +139.83%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 97.87%EV -5.21%E -5.21%K +0.000%G +0.000%46.00I 2.17%NM 2.13%EV +139.83%E +3.04%K +3.11%G +4.35%2.2%2026-04-20 17:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 97.62%EV -5.21%E -5.21%K +0.000%G +0.000%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.38%EV +113.76%E +2.77%K +2.84%G +3.24%2.4%2026-04-20 17:42
Coral🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 97.14%EV -5.21%E -5.21%K +0.000%G +0.000%34.00I 2.94%NM 2.86%EV +77.27%E +2.27%K +2.34%G +1.81%2.9%2026-04-20 17:45
BoyleSports🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 96.26%EV -4.27%E -4.22%K -426.59%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.74%EV +35.56%E +1.37%K +1.42%G +0.506%2.9%2026-04-20 17:46
888sport🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 96.30%EV -5.21%E -5.21%K +0.000%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.70%EV +35.56%E +1.37%K +1.42%G +0.506%3.8%2026-04-20 17:41
Betway🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 96.30%EV -5.21%E -5.21%K +0.000%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.70%EV +35.56%E +1.37%K +1.42%G +0.506%3.8%2026-04-20 17:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.00I 100.00%NM 96.30%EV -5.21%E -5.21%K +0.000%G +0.000%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.70%EV +35.56%E +1.37%K +1.42%G +0.506%3.8%2026-04-20 17:41
Pinnacle🎯1.05I 95.24%NM 95.02%EV -0.474%E -0.452%K -9.49%G +0.000%20.02I 5.00%NM 4.98%EV +4.38%E +0.219%K +0.230%G +0.010%0.2%2026-04-20 17:40
Bovada🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -3.32%E -3.25%K -165.90%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -21.79%E -1.45%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-20 17:37
FanDuel🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.63%EV -3.32%E -3.25%K -165.90%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.37%EV -21.79%E -1.45%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-20 17:39
theScore Bet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -3.32%E -3.25%K -165.90%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -32.22%E -2.48%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-20 17:39
Betsson🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 91.85%EV -3.32%E -3.25%K -165.90%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.15%EV -40.04%E -3.48%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-20 17:39
Fliff🎯1.04I 96.15%NM 88.43%EV -1.42%E -1.37%K -35.56%G +0.000%7.95I 12.58%NM 11.57%EV -58.55%E -7.36%K -8.42%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-20 17:33
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (2)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.00I 100.00%NM 97.44%38.02I 2.63%NM 2.56%2.6%2026-04-20 17:47
Novig1.00I 100.00%NM 94.07%15.87I 6.30%NM 5.93%6.3%2026-04-20 17:48