Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Leolia Jeanjean v Diane Parry

Kickoff: 2026-05-04 08:10 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Leolia Jeanjean (Local)

Prediction 55.19%1.81fair odd
EV -3.96%
Edge -2.28%
Kelly -5.36%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.62%55.19%55.11%56.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.691.711.7462.50%59.11%58.65%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Diane Parry (Visit)

Prediction 44.81%2.23fair odd
EV -0.976%
Edge -0.441%
Kelly -0.806%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.24%44.81%44.89%46.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.112.102.2150.00%47.41%47.62%45.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Leolia Jeanjean (Local): 55.19%; Diane Parry (Visit): 44.81%. For Diane Parry (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.23. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.21, with an expected value of -0.976%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -3.96%E -2.28%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -3.22%E -1.49%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-04 08:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -3.96%E -2.28%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -3.22%E -1.49%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.8%2026-05-04 08:05
GTbets🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -4.52%E -2.61%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -5.01%E -2.36%K -4.47%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-04 07:59
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.52%E -2.61%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.90%E -2.81%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-04 08:05
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -4.52%E -2.61%K -6.19%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -10.39%E -5.19%K -10.39%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-04 08:05
Pinnacle🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.38%EV -5.62%E -3.29%K -7.92%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.62%EV -0.976%E -0.441%K -0.806%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-04 08:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.18%EV -6.17%E -3.63%K -8.82%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 45.82%EV -9.94%E -4.94%K -9.84%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-04 07:59
PlayUp🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -7.28%E -4.33%K -10.70%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -3.66%E -1.70%K -3.19%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-04 08:04
Coral🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.83%E -4.69%K -11.68%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -5.90%E -2.81%K -5.37%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-04 08:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.83%E -4.69%K -11.68%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -5.90%E -2.81%K -5.37%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-04 08:05
NordicBet🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -11.69%E -7.31%K -19.49%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -5.90%E -2.81%K -5.37%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-04 08:05
Betsson🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -11.69%E -7.31%K -19.49%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV -5.90%E -2.81%K -5.37%G +0.000%10.1%2026-05-04 08:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.77I 56.50%NM 54.73%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.27%3.2%2026-05-04 08:05