Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hanne Vandewinkel v Jil Teichmann

Kickoff: 2026-05-04 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

60%

40%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hanne Vandewinkel (Local)

Prediction 60.42%1.65fair odd

EV -3.32%

Edge -2.08%

Kelly -5.54%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

58.97%60.40%60.43%61.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.501.551.541.6066.67%64.48%64.94%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jil Teichmann (Visit)

Prediction 39.58%2.53fair odd

EV -1.85%

Edge -0.747%

Kelly -1.25%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

38.93%39.60%39.57%41.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.282.372.352.4843.86%42.28%42.55%40.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hanne Vandewinkel (Local): 60.42%; Jil Teichmann (Visit): 39.58%. For Jil Teichmann (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.53. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.48, with an expected value of -1.85%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 60.78%EV -3.32%E -2.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%	2.48I 40.32%NM 39.22%EV -1.85%E -0.747%K -1.25%G +0.000%	2.8%	2026-05-04 15:05
LowVig.ag🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 60.78%EV -3.32%E -2.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%	2.48I 40.32%NM 39.22%EV -1.85%E -0.747%K -1.25%G +0.000%	2.8%	2026-05-04 15:05
Pinnacle🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 60.10%EV -3.32%E -2.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%	2.41I 41.49%NM 39.90%EV -4.62%E -1.92%K -3.28%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-05-04 15:05
PlayUp🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -3.32%E -2.08%K -5.54%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -8.98%E -3.90%K -6.90%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-04 15:45
Betway🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -6.34%E -4.09%K -11.53%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -5.02%E -2.09%K -3.58%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-04 15:05
Everygame🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -6.34%E -4.09%K -11.53%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -8.98%E -3.90%K -6.90%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-05-04 15:04
Marathon Bet🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 59.69%EV -6.95%E -4.51%K -12.87%G +0.000%	2.28I 43.86%NM 40.31%EV -9.77%E -4.28%K -7.63%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-05-04 15:44
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -7.55%E -4.94%K -14.25%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -5.02%E -2.09%K -3.58%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-04 15:05
Coral🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -7.55%E -4.94%K -14.25%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -5.02%E -2.09%K -3.58%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-04 15:45
BoyleSports🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -7.55%E -4.94%K -14.25%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -8.98%E -3.90%K -6.90%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-05-04 15:45
Fliff🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.05%EV -7.55%E -4.94%K -14.25%G +0.000%	2.30I 43.48%NM 39.95%EV -8.98%E -3.90%K -6.90%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-05-04 15:45
NordicBet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%EV -9.36%E -6.24%K -18.73%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -7.00%E -2.98%K -5.18%G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-05-04 15:40
Betsson🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 61.04%EV -9.36%E -6.24%K -18.73%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 38.96%EV -7.00%E -2.98%K -5.18%G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-05-04 15:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.64I 60.98%NM 60.19%	2.48I 40.32%NM 39.81%	1.3%	2026-05-04 15:45