Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dominika Šalková v Sinja Kraus

Kickoff: 2026-05-04 08:11 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

30%

70%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dominika Šalková (Local)

Prediction 30.00%3.33fair odd

EV +8.00%

Edge +2.22%

Kelly +3.08%

Growth +0.246%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

25.77%30.00%28.73%35.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.643.183.303.6037.88%31.46%30.30%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sinja Kraus (Visit)

Prediction 70.00%1.43fair odd

EV +2.90%

Edge +1.97%

Kelly +6.17%

Growth +0.179%

assuming max odds 1.47

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

64.23%70.00%71.27%74.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.251.351.331.4780.00%73.84%75.19%68.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dominika Šalková (Local): 30.00%; Sinja Kraus (Visit): 70.00%. For Dominika Šalková (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.33. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Coral🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV +8.00%E +2.22%K +3.08%G +0.246%	1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -12.50%E -10.00%K -50.00%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-05-04 08:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV +8.00%E +2.22%K +3.08%G +0.246%	1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -12.50%E -10.00%K -50.00%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-05-04 08:10
BoyleSports🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV +5.00%E +1.43%K +2.00%G +0.100%	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -9.70%E -7.52%K -33.45%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-04 08:09
Betway🎯	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -0.997%E -0.302%K -0.434%G +0.000%	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.90%E -5.19%K -20.91%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-05-04 08:10
Pinnacle🎯	2.81I 35.59%NM 34.35%EV -15.70%E -5.59%K -8.67%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.65%EV +2.90%E +1.97%K +6.17%G +0.179%	3.6%	2026-05-04 08:05
PlayUp🎯	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -16.00%E -5.71%K -8.89%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -0.601%E -0.423%K -1.43%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-04 08:05
GTbets🎯	2.64I 37.88%NM 35.77%EV -20.80%E -7.88%K -12.68%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.23%EV +2.90%E +1.97%K +6.17%G +0.179%	5.9%	2026-05-04 07:59

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	4.00I 25.00%NM 24.67%	1.31I 76.34%NM 75.33%	1.3%	2026-05-04 08:10