Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Darja Semenistaja v Katie Volynets

Kickoff: 2026-05-04 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

44%

56%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Darja Semenistaja (Local)

Prediction 44.21%2.26fair odd

EV +7.87%

Edge +3.23%

Kelly +5.47%

Growth +0.430%

assuming max odds 2.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

39.12%44.50%44.35%51.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.832.152.302.4454.64%46.48%43.48%40.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Katie Volynets (Visit)

Prediction 55.79%1.79fair odd

EV +6.56%

Edge +3.43%

Kelly +7.21%

Growth +0.473%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

48.93%55.50%55.65%60.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.511.691.611.9166.23%59.23%62.11%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Darja Semenistaja (Local): 44.21%; Katie Volynets (Visit): 55.79%. For Darja Semenistaja (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.26. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.44, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.87%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BoyleSports🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -19.10%E -10.44%K -23.01%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV +6.56%E +3.43%K +7.21%G +0.473%	7.0%	2026-05-04 15:54
Betway🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -13.79%E -7.07%K -14.52%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV +3.21%E +1.74%K +3.78%G +0.121%	5.3%	2026-05-04 15:55
Coral🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 49.20%EV -15.56%E -8.15%K -17.10%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.80%EV +3.21%E +1.74%K +3.78%G +0.121%	6.4%	2026-05-04 15:55
NordicBet🎯	1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -16.00%E -8.42%K -17.78%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV +0.423%E +0.235%K +0.529%G +0.002%	8.2%	2026-05-04 15:55
Betsson🎯	1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -16.00%E -8.42%K -17.78%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV +0.423%E +0.235%K +0.529%G +0.002%	8.2%	2026-05-04 15:55
Fliff🎯	1.87I 53.48%NM 48.63%EV -17.33%E -9.27%K -19.92%G +0.000%	1.77I 56.50%NM 51.37%EV -1.25%E -0.706%K -1.62%G +0.000%	10.0%	2026-05-04 15:55
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.41I 41.49%NM 40.05%EV +6.54%E +2.72%K +4.64%G +0.304%	1.61I 62.11%NM 59.95%EV -10.18%E -6.32%K -16.68%G +0.000%	3.6%	2026-05-04 15:40
LowVig.ag🎯	2.41I 41.49%NM 40.05%EV +6.54%E +2.72%K +4.64%G +0.304%	1.61I 62.11%NM 59.95%EV -10.18%E -6.32%K -16.68%G +0.000%	3.6%	2026-05-04 15:40
Pinnacle🎯	2.44I 40.98%NM 39.45%EV +7.87%E +3.23%K +5.47%G +0.430%	1.59I 62.89%NM 60.55%EV -11.29%E -7.10%K -19.14%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-05-04 15:25
PlayUp🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV +6.10%E +2.54%K +4.36%G +0.266%	1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -13.52%E -8.73%K -24.59%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-04 15:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV +1.68%E +0.731%K +1.29%G +0.022%	1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -13.52%E -8.73%K -24.59%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-05-04 11:50
Everygame🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV +1.68%E +0.731%K +1.29%G +0.022%	1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -13.52%E -8.73%K -24.59%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-05-04 13:40
Marathon Bet🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.12%EV +3.89%E +1.66%K +2.88%G +0.112%	1.51I 66.23%NM 60.88%EV -15.76%E -10.43%K -30.89%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-05-04 15:40

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	2.12I 47.17%NM 46.73%	1.86I 53.76%NM 53.27%	0.9%	2026-05-04 15:55