Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dalma Galfi v Julia Grabher

Kickoff: 2026-05-05 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

15 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

64%

36%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dalma Galfi (Local)

Prediction 63.57%1.57fair odd

EV +8.06%

Edge +4.74%

Kelly +11.52%

Growth +0.929%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

55.26%62.79%64.20%65.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.401.521.501.7071.43%65.82%66.67%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Julia Grabher (Visit)

Prediction 36.43%2.74fair odd

EV +2.74%

Edge +0.973%

Kelly +1.51%

Growth +0.041%

assuming max odds 2.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

34.27%37.21%35.80%44.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.102.452.502.8247.62%40.79%40.00%35.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Dalma Galfi (Local): 63.57%; Julia Grabher (Visit): 36.43%. For Dalma Galfi (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.57. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.06%.

Sportsbook Odds (15 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Bet Victor🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV +8.06%E +4.74%K +11.52%G +0.929%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -23.49%E -11.19%K -21.35%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-05-05 08:54
TAB🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV +4.88%E +2.96%K +7.51%G +0.367%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -23.49%E -11.19%K -21.35%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-05-05 08:55
Paddy Power🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV +2.98%E +1.84%K +4.80%G +0.143%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -19.85%E -9.02%K -16.54%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-05-05 08:53
Coral🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV +1.71%E +1.07%K +2.84%G +0.049%	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -19.85%E -9.02%K -16.54%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-05-05 08:55
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%EV -0.836%E -0.536%K -1.49%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%EV -12.56%E -5.23%K -8.97%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-05-05 08:55
Fliff🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 59.37%EV -2.11%E -1.37%K -3.90%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -18.02%E -8.01%K -14.42%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-05-05 08:55
FanDuel🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -2.74%E -1.79%K -5.18%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -12.56%E -5.23%K -8.97%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-05 08:54
BoyleSports🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.65%E -3.10%K -9.30%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.92%E -3.57%K -5.94%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-05-05 08:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -5.92%E -4.00%K -12.34%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -8.92%E -3.57%K -5.94%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-05-05 08:55
Pinnacle🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 65.73%EV -6.56%E -4.46%K -13.95%G +0.000%	2.82I 35.46%NM 34.27%EV +2.74%E +0.973%K +1.51%G +0.041%	3.5%	2026-05-05 08:45
Caesars🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.63%EV -7.83%E -5.40%K -17.40%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 35.37%EV -3.45%E -1.30%K -2.09%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-05-05 08:55
theScore Bet🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -7.83%E -5.40%K -17.40%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -5.27%E -2.03%K -3.30%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-05-05 08:54
Betway🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -8.46%E -5.88%K -19.24%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV +0.192%E +0.070%K +0.110%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-05-05 08:55
NordicBet🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 65.43%EV -11.01%E -7.86%K -27.52%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%EV -3.45%E -1.30%K -2.09%G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-05-05 08:55
Betsson🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 65.43%EV -11.01%E -7.86%K -27.52%G +0.000%	2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57%EV -3.45%E -1.30%K -2.09%G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-05-05 08:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79%	2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%	0.6%	2026-05-05 08:55
Smarkets◎	1.50I 66.67%NM 66.22%	2.94I 34.01%NM 33.78%	0.7%	2026-05-05 08:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.48I 67.57%NM 66.96%	3.00I 33.33%NM 33.04%	0.9%	2026-05-05 08:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.48I 67.57%NM 66.96%	3.00I 33.33%NM 33.04%	0.9%	2026-05-05 08:55
Novig◎	1.42I 70.42%NM 64.68%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%	8.9%	2026-05-05 08:55