Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Anna Blinkova v Mayar Sherif

Kickoff: 2026-05-04 14:11 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

41%

59%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Anna Blinkova (Local)

Prediction 41.45%2.41fair odd

EV +14.00%

Edge +5.09%

Kelly +8.00%

Growth +1.12%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

34.52%40.97%42.76%45.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.102.312.212.7547.62%43.32%45.15%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mayar Sherif (Visit)

Prediction 58.55%1.71fair odd

EV +3.04%

Edge +1.73%

Kelly +4.00%

Growth +0.122%

assuming max odds 1.76

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

54.52%59.03%57.24%65.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.441.591.631.7669.44%62.81%61.54%56.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Anna Blinkova (Local): 41.45%; Mayar Sherif (Visit): 58.55%. For Anna Blinkova (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.41. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +14.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Betway🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV +14.00%E +5.09%K +8.00%G +1.12%	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -15.11%E -10.42%K -33.57%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-05-04 14:09
Coral🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV +7.78%E +2.99%K +4.86%G +0.378%	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -15.69%E -10.90%K -35.66%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-05-04 14:10
NordicBet🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV +3.63%E +1.45%K +2.42%G +0.088%	1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -15.11%E -10.42%K -33.57%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-05-04 14:10
Betsson🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV +3.63%E +1.45%K +2.42%G +0.088%	1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -15.11%E -10.42%K -33.57%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-05-04 14:10
Fliff🎯	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV +1.56%E +0.637%K +1.08%G +0.017%	1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -13.94%E -9.48%K -29.65%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-05-04 14:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -4.66%E -2.03%K -3.58%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -8.08%E -5.15%K -14.18%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-05-04 14:09
Pinnacle🎯	2.23I 44.84%NM 43.11%EV -7.56%E -3.39%K -6.15%G +0.000%	1.69I 59.17%NM 56.89%EV -1.06%E -0.625%K -1.53%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-05-04 14:05
PlayUp🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -8.80%E -4.00%K -7.34%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -3.40%E -2.06%K -5.23%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-04 14:05
BoyleSports🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -8.80%E -4.00%K -7.34%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.15%E -3.18%K -8.31%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-05-04 14:08
GTbets🎯	2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -10.46%E -4.84%K -9.02%G +0.000%	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -0.470%E -0.277%K -0.672%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-05-04 14:01
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.11I 47.39%NM 45.48%EV -12.53%E -5.94%K -11.29%G +0.000%	1.76I 56.82%NM 54.52%EV +3.04%E +1.73%K +4.00%G +0.122%	4.2%	2026-05-04 14:05
LowVig.ag🎯	2.11I 47.39%NM 45.48%EV -12.53%E -5.94%K -11.29%G +0.000%	1.76I 56.82%NM 54.52%EV +3.04%E +1.73%K +4.00%G +0.122%	4.2%	2026-05-04 14:05
Marathon Bet🎯	2.11I 47.39%NM 43.58%EV -12.53%E -5.94%K -11.29%G +0.000%	1.63I 61.35%NM 56.42%EV -4.57%E -2.80%K -7.25%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-05-04 14:04
Everygame🎯	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -12.95%E -6.17%K -11.77%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -3.40%E -2.06%K -5.23%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-05-04 14:01

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.