Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Anastasia Potapova v Irina-Camelia Begu

Kickoff: 2026-05-04 09:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

88%

12%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Anastasia Potapova (Local)

Prediction 87.75%1.14fair odd

EV +1.79%

Edge +1.54%

Kelly +11.19%

Growth +0.200%

assuming max odds 1.16

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

81.17%87.62%87.72%91.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.041.101.061.1696.15%91.29%94.34%86.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Irina-Camelia Begu (Visit)

Prediction 12.25%8.16fair odd

EV +34.75%

Edge +3.16%

Kelly +3.48%

Growth +1.21%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

8.71%12.38%12.28%18.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

5.007.677.5011.0020.00%13.03%13.33%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Anastasia Potapova (Local): 87.75%; Irina-Camelia Begu (Visit): 12.25%. For Irina-Camelia Begu (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.16. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +34.75%.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BoyleSports🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 91.21%EV -6.99%E -6.59%K -116.42%G +0.000%	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.79%EV +34.75%E +3.16%K +3.48%G +1.21%	3.4%	2026-05-04 08:15
Betway🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -7.86%E -7.49%K -157.26%G +0.000%	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +34.75%E +3.16%K +3.48%G +1.21%	4.3%	2026-05-04 08:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -7.86%E -7.49%K -157.26%G +0.000%	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV +22.50%E +2.25%K +2.50%G +0.563%	5.2%	2026-05-04 08:15
Coral🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -6.99%E -6.59%K -116.42%G +0.000%	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV +10.25%E +1.14%K +1.28%G +0.131%	5.5%	2026-05-04 08:15
NordicBet🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 88.17%EV -8.74%E -8.40%K -218.51%G +0.000%	7.75I 12.90%NM 11.83%EV -5.06%E -0.653%K -0.750%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-05-04 08:15
Betsson🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 87.72%EV -7.86%E -7.49%K -157.26%G +0.000%	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -8.12%E -1.08%K -1.25%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-05-04 08:15
Pinnacle🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 84.32%EV +0.035%E +0.030%K +0.247%G +0.000%	6.13I 16.31%NM 15.68%EV -24.91%E -4.06%K -4.85%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-05-04 08:05
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV +0.035%E +0.030%K +0.247%G +0.000%	5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -28.95%E -4.99%K -6.03%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-05-04 08:05
LowVig.ag🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV +0.035%E +0.030%K +0.247%G +0.000%	5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -28.95%E -4.99%K -6.03%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-05-04 08:05
GTbets🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 82.42%EV +1.79%E +1.54%K +11.19%G +0.200%	5.44I 18.38%NM 17.58%EV -33.36%E -6.13%K -7.51%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-05-04 07:59
PlayUp🎯	1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV +1.79%E +1.54%K +11.19%G +0.200%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -38.75%E -7.75%K -9.69%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-05-04 08:05

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.08I 92.59%NM 85.94%	6.60I 15.15%NM 14.06%	7.7%	2026-05-04 08:14