Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alycia Parks v Dalma Galfi

Kickoff: 2026-05-04 11:56 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

12 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

38%

62%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alycia Parks (Local)

Prediction 38.01%2.63fair odd

EV +3.78%

Edge +1.38%

Kelly +2.18%

Growth +0.083%

assuming max odds 2.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

35.31%38.07%38.27%42.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.202.442.422.7345.45%40.98%41.32%36.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Dalma Galfi (Visit)

Prediction 61.99%1.61fair odd

EV -0.203%

Edge -0.126%

Kelly -0.333%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.61

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

57.74%61.93%61.73%64.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.451.521.521.6168.97%65.61%65.79%62.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alycia Parks (Local): 38.01%; Dalma Galfi (Visit): 61.99%. For Alycia Parks (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.63. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.73, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.78%.

Sportsbook Odds (12 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	2.73I 36.63%NM 35.31%EV +3.78%E +1.38%K +2.18%G +0.083%	1.49I 67.11%NM 64.69%EV -7.64%E -5.13%K -15.59%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-05-04 10:40
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.68I 37.31%NM 35.73%EV +1.88%E +0.701%K +1.12%G +0.021%	1.49I 67.11%NM 64.27%EV -7.64%E -5.13%K -15.59%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-05-04 11:50
LowVig.ag🎯	2.68I 37.31%NM 35.73%EV +1.88%E +0.701%K +1.12%G +0.021%	1.49I 67.11%NM 64.27%EV -7.64%E -5.13%K -15.59%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-05-04 11:50
Everygame🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -3.06%E -1.20%K -1.98%G +0.000%	1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -10.12%E -6.98%K -22.49%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-05-04 09:55
PlayUp🎯	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -4.96%E -1.99%K -3.31%G +0.000%	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -5.78%E -3.80%K -11.12%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-05-04 11:50
Marathon Bet🎯	2.46I 40.65%NM 37.40%EV -6.48%E -2.64%K -4.44%G +0.000%	1.47I 68.03%NM 62.60%EV -8.88%E -6.04%K -18.90%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-05-04 11:55
BoyleSports🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -9.53%E -4.00%K -6.90%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -5.16%E -3.37%K -9.74%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-05-04 11:55
Betway🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -12.57%E -5.46%K -9.67%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -0.823%E -0.514%K -1.37%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-05-04 11:55
NordicBet🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 39.79%EV -12.57%E -5.46%K -9.67%G +0.000%	1.52I 65.79%NM 60.21%EV -5.78%E -3.80%K -11.12%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-05-04 11:55
Betsson🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 39.79%EV -12.57%E -5.46%K -9.67%G +0.000%	1.52I 65.79%NM 60.21%EV -5.78%E -3.80%K -11.12%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-05-04 11:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -16.37%E -7.44%K -13.64%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -0.203%E -0.126%K -0.333%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-05-04 11:55
Coral🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -16.37%E -7.44%K -13.64%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -0.823%E -0.514%K -1.37%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-05-04 11:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	2.74I 36.50%NM 34.29%	1.43I 69.93%NM 65.71%	6.4%	2026-05-04 11:55