Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alina Korneeva v Ella Seidel

Kickoff: 2026-05-04 11:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

54%

46%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Alina Korneeva (Local)

Prediction 54.21%1.84fair odd

EV +8.97%

Edge +4.46%

Kelly +8.88%

Growth +0.796%

assuming max odds 2.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

47.93%53.82%54.58%61.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.501.731.702.0166.67%57.73%58.82%49.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ella Seidel (Visit)

Prediction 45.79%2.18fair odd

EV +9.89%

Edge +4.12%

Kelly +7.06%

Growth +0.698%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

38.46%46.18%45.42%52.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.852.082.002.4054.05%48.15%50.00%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alina Korneeva (Local): 54.21%; Ella Seidel (Visit): 45.79%. For Ella Seidel (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.18. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.89%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	2.01I 49.75%NM 47.93%EV +8.97%E +4.46%K +8.88%G +0.796%	1.85I 54.05%NM 52.07%EV -15.29%E -8.27%K -17.99%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-05-04 10:50
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV +3.55%E +1.86%K +3.90%G +0.138%	1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -12.55%E -6.57%K -13.79%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-05-04 07:10
LowVig.ag🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV +3.55%E +1.86%K +3.90%G +0.138%	1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -12.55%E -6.57%K -13.79%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-05-04 07:05
PlayUp🎯	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.40%EV +1.38%E +0.738%K +1.59%G +0.022%	1.90I 52.63%NM 49.60%EV -13.01%E -6.85%K -14.45%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-05-04 10:47
Everygame🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -2.42%E -1.34%K -3.02%G +0.000%	1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -13.01%E -6.85%K -14.45%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-05-04 09:15
GTbets🎯	1.78I 56.18%NM 52.66%EV -3.50%E -1.97%K -4.49%G +0.000%	1.98I 50.51%NM 47.34%EV -9.34%E -4.72%K -9.53%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-05-04 10:49
Betsson🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -7.84%E -4.61%K -11.20%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -8.43%E -4.21%K -8.43%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-05-04 10:54
Marathon Bet🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -9.46%E -5.67%K -14.12%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -6.14%E -2.99%K -5.85%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-05-04 10:49
Betway🎯	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -10.55%E -6.39%K -16.23%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV +3.02%E +1.34%K +2.42%G +0.073%	5.1%	2026-05-04 10:54
BoyleSports🎯	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -12.17%E -7.51%K -19.64%G +0.000%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV +3.02%E +1.34%K +2.42%G +0.073%	6.2%	2026-05-04 10:55
NordicBet🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -14.88%E -9.48%K -26.11%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV +0.730%E +0.332%K +0.609%G +0.004%	9.1%	2026-05-04 10:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -17.05%E -11.15%K -32.18%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV +9.89%E +4.12%K +7.06%G +0.698%	7.0%	2026-05-04 10:55
Coral🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -18.68%E -12.45%K -37.36%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV +9.89%E +4.12%K +7.06%G +0.698%	8.3%	2026-05-04 10:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.68I 59.52%NM 54.84%	2.04I 49.02%NM 45.16%	8.5%	2026-05-04 10:55