Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Yuliia Starodubtseva v Elvina Kalieva

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

63%

37%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Yuliia Starodubtseva (Local)

Prediction 63.30%1.58fair odd

EV +7.62%

Edge +4.48%

Kelly +10.88%

Growth +0.829%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

56.63%62.42%63.81%64.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.421.501.501.7070.42%66.67%66.67%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Elvina Kalieva (Visit)

Prediction 36.70%2.73fair odd

EV -3.85%

Edge -1.47%

Kelly -2.38%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

35.32%37.58%36.19%43.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.222.502.552.6245.05%40.07%39.22%38.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Yuliia Starodubtseva (Local): 63.30%; Elvina Kalieva (Visit): 36.70%. For Yuliia Starodubtseva (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.58. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.62%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV +7.62%E +4.48%K +10.88%G +0.829%	2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -18.53%E -8.35%K -15.19%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-03-01 21:55
Coral🎯	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV +1.29%E +0.803%K +2.14%G +0.028%	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -17.43%E -7.75%K -13.95%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-01 21:55
Bovada🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -2.51%E -1.63%K -4.65%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -6.42%E -2.52%K -4.14%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-03-01 21:54
Bet Victor🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -3.15%E -2.06%K -5.94%G +0.000%	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -11.93%E -4.97%K -8.52%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-03-01 21:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -3.15%E -2.06%K -5.94%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -12.66%E -5.32%K -9.18%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-03-01 21:55
Betway🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.05%E -3.36%K -10.09%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.59%E -1.76%K -2.87%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-03-01 21:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -5.05%E -3.36%K -10.09%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -10.09%E -4.12%K -6.96%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-03-01 21:54
theScore Bet🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -8.21%E -5.66%K -18.25%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -4.59%E -1.76%K -2.87%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-03-01 21:54
888sport🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -8.84%E -6.14%K -20.10%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -3.85%E -1.47%K -2.38%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-03-01 21:54
888sport (SE)🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -8.84%E -6.14%K -20.10%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -3.85%E -1.47%K -2.38%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-03-01 21:54
Fliff🎯	1.43I 69.93%NM 64.07%EV -9.48%E -6.63%K -22.04%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 35.93%EV -6.42%E -2.52%K -4.14%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-03-01 21:55
NordicBet🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 64.68%EV -10.11%E -7.12%K -24.07%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -4.59%E -1.76%K -2.87%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-03-01 21:55
Betsson🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 64.68%EV -10.11%E -7.12%K -24.07%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.32%EV -4.59%E -1.76%K -2.87%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-03-01 21:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.61I 62.11%NM 59.03%	2.32I 43.10%NM 40.97%	5.2%	2026-03-01 21:54