Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Varvara Lepchenko v Linda Fruhvirtova

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

33%

67%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Varvara Lepchenko (Local)

Prediction 32.69%3.06fair odd

EV +12.13%

Edge +3.54%

Kelly +4.99%

Growth +0.606%

assuming max odds 3.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.66%32.93%33.66%38.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.402.932.753.4341.67%34.19%36.36%29.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Linda Fruhvirtova (Visit)

Prediction 67.31%1.49fair odd

EV +2.98%

Edge +1.95%

Kelly +5.63%

Growth +0.168%

assuming max odds 1.53

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

61.07%67.07%66.34%72.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.301.391.391.5376.92%72.14%71.94%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Varvara Lepchenko (Local): 32.69%; Linda Fruhvirtova (Visit): 67.31%. For Varvara Lepchenko (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.06. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.43, corresponding to a positive expected value of +12.13%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	3.43I 29.15%NM 28.09%EV +12.13%E +3.54%K +4.99%G +0.606%	1.34I 74.63%NM 71.91%EV -9.81%E -7.32%K -28.84%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-03-01 17:59
William Hill🎯	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV +11.15%E +3.28%K +4.65%G +0.518%	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -12.50%E -9.62%K -41.67%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-01 17:59
LowVig.ag🎯	3.32I 30.12%NM 28.76%EV +8.54%E +2.57%K +3.68%G +0.314%	1.34I 74.63%NM 71.24%EV -9.81%E -7.32%K -28.84%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-03-01 18:00
BetOnline.ag🎯	3.32I 30.12%NM 28.76%EV +8.54%E +2.57%K +3.68%G +0.314%	1.34I 74.63%NM 71.24%EV -9.81%E -7.32%K -28.84%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-03-01 18:00
Everygame🎯	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV +4.61%E +1.44%K +2.10%G +0.097%	1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -10.48%E -7.88%K -31.76%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-03-01 18:00
GTbets🎯	3.18I 31.45%NM 29.96%EV +3.96%E +1.25%K +1.82%G +0.072%	1.36I 73.53%NM 70.04%EV -8.46%E -6.22%K -23.50%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-03-01 18:09
Bovada🎯	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV +1.35%E +0.434%K +0.641%G +0.009%	1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -7.11%E -5.16%K -18.72%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-03-01 18:17
theScore Bet🎯	2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -6.83%E -2.40%K -3.69%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.42%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-03-01 18:20
Betway🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -10.10%E -3.67%K -5.77%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -3.08%E -2.14%K -6.99%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-03-01 18:19
888sport🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.10%E -3.67%K -5.77%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.42%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-03-01 18:19
Coral🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.10%E -3.67%K -5.77%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.42%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-03-01 18:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.10%E -3.67%K -5.77%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.42%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-03-01 18:19
888sport (SE)🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -10.10%E -3.67%K -5.77%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -5.77%E -4.12%K -14.42%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-03-01 18:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -11.73%E -4.35%K -6.90%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -3.08%E -2.14%K -6.99%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-03-01 18:20
NordicBet🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 33.66%EV -11.73%E -4.35%K -6.90%G +0.000%	1.37I 72.99%NM 66.34%EV -7.79%E -5.68%K -21.05%G +0.000%	10.0%	2026-03-01 18:20
Betsson🎯	2.70I 37.04%NM 33.66%EV -11.73%E -4.35%K -6.90%G +0.000%	1.37I 72.99%NM 66.34%EV -7.79%E -5.68%K -21.05%G +0.000%	10.0%	2026-03-01 18:20
Fliff🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 35.16%EV -15.00%E -5.77%K -9.38%G +0.000%	1.41I 70.92%NM 64.84%EV -5.10%E -3.61%K -12.43%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-03-01 18:19
Bet Victor🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -21.54%E -8.97%K -15.39%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV +2.98%E +1.95%K +5.63%G +0.168%	7.0%	2026-03-01 18:18

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	2.14I 46.73%NM 40.39%	1.45I 68.97%NM 59.61%	15.7%	2026-03-01 18:19