Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mary Stoiana v Leolia Jeanjean

Kickoff: 2026-03-02 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

53%

47%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mary Stoiana (Local)

Prediction 52.51%1.90fair odd

EV +2.40%

Edge +1.23%

Kelly +2.52%

Growth +0.061%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

48.00%52.57%52.27%66.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.441.751.771.9569.44%57.12%56.50%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Leolia Jeanjean (Visit)

Prediction 47.49%2.11fair odd

EV +35.34%

Edge +12.40%

Kelly +19.10%

Growth +6.75%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

33.57%47.43%47.73%52.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.802.031.952.8555.56%49.17%51.28%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mary Stoiana (Local): 52.51%; Leolia Jeanjean (Visit): 47.49%. For Leolia Jeanjean (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.11. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.85, corresponding to a positive expected value of +35.34%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Bovada🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -24.38%E -16.93%K -55.42%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV +35.34%E +12.40%K +19.10%G +6.75%	4.5%	2026-03-01 23:52
Pinnacle🎯	1.68I 59.52%NM 57.36%EV -11.78%E -7.01%K -17.32%G +0.000%	2.26I 44.25%NM 42.64%EV +7.32%E +3.24%K +5.81%G +0.426%	3.8%	2026-03-01 23:55
Betway🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -9.15%E -5.29%K -12.54%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -0.275%E -0.131%K -0.250%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-03-01 23:54
theScore Bet🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.05%E -3.99%K -9.16%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -5.02%E -2.51%K -5.02%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-03-01 23:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -8.10%E -4.63%K -10.81%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -5.02%E -2.51%K -5.02%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-03-01 23:54
Fliff🎯	1.69I 59.17%NM 54.20%EV -11.25%E -6.66%K -16.31%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 45.80%EV -5.02%E -2.51%K -5.02%G +0.000%	9.2%	2026-03-01 23:54
Coral🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -5.48%E -3.04%K -6.85%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -7.40%E -3.79%K -7.79%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-03-01 23:54
888sport🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.48%E -3.04%K -6.85%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.30%E -4.87%K -10.22%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-03-01 23:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.48%E -3.04%K -6.85%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.30%E -4.87%K -10.22%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-03-01 23:54
888sport (SE)🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -5.48%E -3.04%K -6.85%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -9.30%E -4.87%K -10.22%G +0.000%	7.9%	2026-03-01 23:54
NordicBet🎯	1.75I 57.14%NM 52.05%EV -8.10%E -4.63%K -10.81%G +0.000%	1.90I 52.63%NM 47.95%EV -9.77%E -5.14%K -10.86%G +0.000%	9.8%	2026-03-01 23:54
Betsson🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 50.68%EV -5.48%E -3.04%K -6.85%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -12.15%E -6.57%K -14.29%G +0.000%	9.6%	2026-03-01 23:54
Bet Victor🎯	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV +2.40%E +1.23%K +2.52%G +0.061%	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -14.52%E -8.07%K -18.15%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-03-01 23:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.92I 52.08%NM 50.77%	1.98I 50.51%NM 49.23%	2.6%	2026-03-01 23:55