Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marina Stakusic v Mananchaya Sawangkaew

Kickoff: 2026-03-03 18:14 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Marina Stakusic (Local)

Prediction 55.59%1.80fair odd
EV +1.72%
Edge +0.942%
Kelly +2.08%
Growth +0.036%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.07%55.24%55.52%57.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.691.681.8362.11%59.28%59.52%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Mananchaya Sawangkaew (Visit)

Prediction 44.41%2.25fair odd
EV -0.069%
Edge -0.031%
Kelly -0.056%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.01%44.76%44.48%48.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.912.132.162.2552.36%47.03%46.30%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Marina Stakusic (Local): 55.59%; Mananchaya Sawangkaew (Visit): 44.41%. For Marina Stakusic (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.80. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.83, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.72%.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV +1.72%E +0.942%K +2.08%G +0.036%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -15.17%E -7.94%K -16.67%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-03 18:11
Betway🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -2.72%E -1.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -8.95%E -4.37%K -8.53%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-03 18:10
Coral🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -2.72%E -1.56%K -3.63%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -11.17%E -5.59%K -11.17%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-03 18:11
Pinnacle🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.64%EV -3.84%E -2.22%K -5.25%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 44.36%EV -3.62%E -1.67%K -3.10%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-03 18:00
Fliff🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.28%EV -4.95%E -2.89%K -6.97%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.72%EV -13.39%E -6.87%K -14.10%G +0.000%9.8%2026-03-03 18:11
BetOnline.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -5.50%E -3.24%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -1.40%E -0.631%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-03 16:30
LowVig.ag🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -5.50%E -3.24%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -1.40%E -0.631%K -1.15%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-03 16:30
Everygame🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.50%E -3.24%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.73%E -3.21%K -6.12%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-03 17:35
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.50%E -3.24%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.95%E -4.37%K -8.53%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-03 18:10
Bovada🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -6.06%E -3.59%K -8.78%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -2.29%E -1.04%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.6%2026-03-03 18:03
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.17%E -4.29%K -10.70%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.29%E -1.04%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-03 17:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.17%E -4.29%K -10.70%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.29%E -1.04%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-03 17:40
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.17%E -4.29%K -10.70%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.29%E -1.04%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-03 17:40
GTbets🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -7.73%E -4.65%K -11.71%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -0.958%E -0.429%K -0.779%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-03 18:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -8.28%E -5.02%K -12.74%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -4.51%E -2.10%K -3.92%G +0.000%7.1%2026-03-03 11:20
NordicBet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -8.28%E -5.02%K -12.74%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -8.95%E -4.37%K -8.53%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-03 18:05
Betsson🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -8.28%E -5.02%K -12.74%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -8.95%E -4.37%K -8.53%G +0.000%9.4%2026-03-03 18:05
PlayUp🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -9.39%E -5.76%K -14.91%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -0.069%E -0.031%K -0.056%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-03 18:09
Marathon Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 56.80%EV -9.95%E -6.14%K -16.05%G +0.000%2.13I 46.95%NM 43.20%EV -5.40%E -2.53%K -4.78%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-03 17:45
Bet Victor🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -10.51%E -6.53%K -17.22%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -2.29%E -1.04%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-03 18:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.88I 53.19%NM 52.28%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.72%1.7%2026-03-03 18:11