Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Maria Timofeeva v Suzan Lamens

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 21:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Maria Timofeeva (Local)

Prediction 58.06%1.72fair odd
EV +12.64%
Edge +6.52%
Kelly +13.45%
Growth +1.70%

assuming max odds 1.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.08%58.06%59.09%68.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.641.571.9473.53%60.96%63.69%51.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Suzan Lamens (Visit)

Prediction 41.94%2.38fair odd
EV +25.81%
Edge +8.60%
Kelly +12.90%
Growth +3.33%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.19%41.94%40.91%50.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.832.262.253.0054.64%44.28%44.44%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Maria Timofeeva (Local): 58.06%; Suzan Lamens (Visit): 41.94%. For Suzan Lamens (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.38. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +25.81%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Bet Victor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -21.03%E -15.47%K -58.43%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV +25.81%E +8.60%K +12.90%G +3.33%6.9%2026-03-01 20:18
Bovada🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -16.97%E -11.87%K -39.46%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV +21.61%E +7.45%K +11.38%G +2.46%4.4%2026-03-01 20:18
888sport (SE)🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -16.39%E -11.38%K -37.25%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV +9.87%E +3.77%K +6.09%G +0.602%7.6%2026-03-01 20:20
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -12.90%E -8.60%K -25.81%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV +4.84%E +1.94%K +3.23%G +0.156%6.7%2026-03-01 20:19
theScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -12.90%E -8.60%K -25.81%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV +4.84%E +1.94%K +3.23%G +0.156%6.7%2026-03-01 20:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -12.90%E -8.60%K -25.81%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV +4.84%E +1.94%K +3.23%G +0.156%6.7%2026-03-01 20:15
Betway🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -7.10%E -4.44%K -11.83%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -3.55%E -1.54%K -2.73%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-01 20:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -10.00%E -6.45%K -18.18%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -3.55%E -1.54%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-01 20:19
Coral🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -10.00%E -6.45%K -18.18%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -3.55%E -1.54%K -2.73%G +0.000%8.0%2026-03-01 20:19
Betsson🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -10.00%E -6.45%K -18.18%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -5.64%E -2.51%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-01 20:19
NordicBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -8.84%E -5.63%K -15.51%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -7.74%E -3.52%K -6.45%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-01 20:19
Fliff🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -8.84%E -5.63%K -15.51%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -7.74%E -3.52%K -6.45%G +0.000%9.1%2026-03-01 20:19
LowVig.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV +7.42%E +4.01%K +8.73%G +0.647%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -17.39%E -8.83%K -17.92%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-01 20:09
BetOnline.ag🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV +7.42%E +4.01%K +8.73%G +0.647%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -17.39%E -8.83%K -17.92%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-01 20:10
Pinnacle🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.39%EV +10.90%E +5.71%K +11.98%G +1.31%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.61%EV -18.64%E -9.61%K -19.83%G +0.000%3.9%2026-03-01 20:10
Everygame🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.67%EV +7.42%E +4.01%K +8.73%G +0.647%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.33%EV -20.32%E -10.70%K -22.58%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-01 20:00
GTbets🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV +12.64%E +6.52%K +13.45%G +1.70%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -21.58%E -11.54%K -24.80%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-01 20:07
Marathon Bet🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.54%EV +5.68%E +3.12%K +6.92%G +0.393%1.86I 53.76%NM 49.46%EV -22.00%E -11.83%K -25.58%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-01 19:59
William Hill🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV +6.26%E +3.42%K +7.54%G +0.472%1.83I 54.64%NM 50.00%EV -23.26%E -12.71%K -28.02%G +0.000%9.3%2026-03-01 20:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.56I 64.10%NM 55.30%1.93I 51.81%NM 44.70%15.9%2026-03-01 20:14