Language:English
Maria Camila Osorio Serrano v Naomi Osaka
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Maria Camila Osorio Serrano (Local)
Prediction 31.16%3.21fair odd
EV +16.85%
Edge +4.49%
Kelly +6.13%
Growth +1.03%
assuming max odds 3.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.00%31.06%32.08%38.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.993.003.7540.00%33.48%33.33%26.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Naomi Osaka (Visit)
Prediction 68.84%1.45fair odd
EV +7.39%
Edge +4.74%
Kelly +13.20%
Growth +0.975%
assuming max odds 1.56
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.86%68.94%67.92%75.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.251.381.361.5680.00%72.29%73.53%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Maria Camila Osorio Serrano (Local): 31.16%; Naomi Osaka (Visit): 68.84%. For Maria Camila Osorio Serrano (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.21. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +16.85%.
Sportsbook Odds (54 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 888sport🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV +16.85%E +4.49%K +6.13%G +1.03% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -13.95%E -11.16%K -55.80%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-08 21:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV +12.18%E +3.38%K +4.68%G +0.570% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -13.95%E -11.16%K -55.80%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-08 21:14 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV +9.06%E +2.59%K +3.62%G +0.328% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -11.20%E -8.68%K -38.61%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-08 21:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV +5.94%E +1.75%K +2.48%G +0.147% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -10.51%E -8.08%K -35.03%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-08 21:14 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV +4.39%E +1.31%K +1.87%G +0.082% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -10.51%E -8.08%K -35.03%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-08 21:15 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.42%EV +2.83%E +0.857%K +1.23%G +0.035% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.58%EV -9.82%E -7.50%K -31.68%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-08 21:15 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV +2.83%E +0.857%K +1.23%G +0.035% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -10.51%E -8.08%K -35.03%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-08 21:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.26%EV +2.83%E +0.857%K +1.23%G +0.035% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.74%EV -10.51%E -8.08%K -35.03%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-08 21:15 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.95%EV +2.83%E +0.857%K +1.23%G +0.035% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.05%EV -11.88%E -9.28%K -42.45%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-08 21:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV +1.27%E +0.391%K +0.564%G +0.007% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -8.44%E -6.35%K -25.58%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-08 21:14 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV +1.27%E +0.391%K +0.564%G +0.007% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -8.44%E -6.35%K -25.58%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-08 21:14 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -0.288%E -0.090%K -0.131%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -6.38%E -4.69%K -17.72%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-08 21:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -0.288%E -0.090%K -0.131%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -6.38%E -4.69%K -17.72%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-08 21:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -0.288%E -0.090%K -0.131%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -7.07%E -5.23%K -20.19%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-08 21:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -0.288%E -0.090%K -0.131%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -10.51%E -8.08%K -35.03%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-08 21:14 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -3.40%E -1.10%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.38%E -4.69%K -17.72%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-08 21:14 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -3.40%E -1.10%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.38%E -4.69%K -17.72%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-08 21:14 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -3.40%E -1.10%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.38%E -4.69%K -17.72%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-08 21:14 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -3.40%E -1.10%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.38%E -4.69%K -17.72%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-08 21:14 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -3.40%E -1.10%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.38%E -4.69%K -17.72%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-08 21:14 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -3.40%E -1.10%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -6.38%E -4.69%K -17.72%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-08 21:13 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.18%EV -3.40%E -1.10%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 69.82%EV -7.75%E -5.79%K -22.81%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-08 21:14 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.71%EV -3.40%E -1.10%K -1.62%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.29%EV -9.82%E -7.50%K -31.68%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-03-08 21:14 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.00%EV -4.96%E -1.63%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.00%EV -5.69%E -4.15%K -15.38%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-08 21:14 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.52%E -2.17%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.38%E -4.69%K -17.72%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-08 21:14 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.52%E -2.17%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.38%E -4.69%K -17.72%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-08 21:14 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.52%E -2.17%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.38%E -4.69%K -17.72%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-08 21:14 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -6.52%E -2.17%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -6.38%E -4.69%K -17.72%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-08 21:14 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -6.52%E -2.17%K -3.26%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.97%EV -7.07%E -5.23%K -20.19%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-08 21:14 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -8.08%E -2.74%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -2.25%E -1.58%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-08 21:13 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -8.08%E -2.74%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.82%EV -3.62%E -2.59%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-08 21:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -8.08%E -2.74%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.93%EV -8.44%E -6.35%K -25.58%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-08 21:14 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.07%EV -8.08%E -2.74%K -4.14%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.93%EV -8.44%E -6.35%K -25.58%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-08 21:14 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.93I 34.13%NM 32.49%EV -8.70%E -2.97%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 67.51%EV -2.94%E -2.08%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-08 21:13 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -9.64%E -3.32%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.62%E -2.59%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-08 21:14 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -9.64%E -3.32%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -3.62%E -2.59%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-08 21:14 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -9.64%E -3.32%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.00%E -3.62%K -13.16%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-08 21:15 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -9.64%E -3.32%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.76%EV -5.00%E -3.62%K -13.16%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-08 21:14 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.08%EV -9.64%E -3.32%K -5.07%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.92%EV -5.69%E -4.15%K -15.38%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-08 21:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -10.26%E -3.56%K -5.46%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -6.38%E -4.69%K -17.72%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-08 21:14 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 32.85%EV -12.75%E -4.55%K -7.08%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.15%EV -5.69%E -4.15%K -15.38%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-08 21:14 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.78I 35.97%NM 33.01%EV -13.38%E -4.81%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 66.99%EV -5.69%E -4.15%K -15.38%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-08 21:13 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.52%EV -13.69%E -4.94%K -7.73%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.48%EV +0.506%E +0.347%K +1.10%G +0.006% | 4.6% | 2026-03-08 21:03 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 37.32%EV -18.36%E -7.01%K -11.33%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.68%EV +7.39%E +4.74%K +13.20%G +0.975% | 2.3% | 2026-03-08 20:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -18.98%E -7.30%K -11.87%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV +1.88%E +1.27%K +3.92%G +0.074% | 6.0% | 2026-03-08 21:08 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.56I 39.06%NM 37.25%EV -20.23%E -7.90%K -12.97%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.75%EV +4.64%E +3.05%K +8.92%G +0.413% | 4.9% | 2026-03-08 21:02 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.54I 39.37%NM 36.82%EV -20.85%E -8.21%K -13.54%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.18%EV +1.88%E +1.27%K +3.92%G +0.074% | 6.9% | 2026-03-08 21:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 38.14%EV -21.17%E -8.37%K -13.83%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.86%EV +7.39%E +4.74%K +13.20%G +0.975% | 3.6% | 2026-03-08 21:06 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 38.14%EV -21.17%E -8.37%K -13.83%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.86%EV +7.39%E +4.74%K +13.20%G +0.975% | 3.6% | 2026-03-08 21:07 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -22.10%E -8.84%K -14.73%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV +5.33%E +3.48%K +10.05%G +0.535% | 5.4% | 2026-03-08 21:04 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -22.10%E -8.84%K -14.73%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV +5.33%E +3.48%K +10.05%G +0.535% | 5.4% | 2026-03-08 21:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -22.10%E -8.84%K -14.73%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV +4.64%E +3.05%K +8.92%G +0.413% | 5.8% | 2026-03-08 21:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -22.10%E -8.84%K -14.73%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV +3.26%E +2.17%K +6.52%G +0.213% | 6.7% | 2026-03-08 21:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -22.10%E -8.84%K -14.73%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV +3.26%E +2.17%K +6.52%G +0.213% | 6.7% | 2026-03-08 21:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.43% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.57% | 0.5% | 2026-03-08 21:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.42% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 72.58% | 1.3% | 2026-03-08 21:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.05I 32.79%NM 32.07% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 67.93% | 2.2% | 2026-03-08 21:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61% | 4.3% | 2026-03-08 21:14 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84% | 5.3% | 2026-03-08 21:15 |
| Novig◎ | 3.02I 33.11%NM 30.57% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.43% | 8.3% | 2026-03-08 21:15 |