Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mananchaya Sawangkaew v Rebeka Masarova

Kickoff: 2026-03-02 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Mananchaya Sawangkaew (Local)

Prediction 37.31%2.68fair odd
EV +19.40%
Edge +6.06%
Kelly +8.82%
Growth +1.71%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.21%36.56%37.64%40.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.632.603.2043.48%37.99%38.46%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Rebeka Masarova (Visit)

Prediction 62.69%1.60fair odd
EV +2.18%
Edge +1.34%
Kelly +3.46%
Growth +0.075%

assuming max odds 1.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.35%63.44%62.36%70.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.301.471.451.6376.92%67.93%68.97%61.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mananchaya Sawangkaew (Local): 37.31%; Rebeka Masarova (Visit): 62.69%. For Mananchaya Sawangkaew (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.68. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +19.40%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Coral🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV +19.40%E +6.06%K +8.82%G +1.71%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -16.63%E -12.50%K -50.39%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-02 22:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV +19.40%E +6.06%K +8.82%G +1.71%1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -16.63%E -12.50%K -50.39%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-02 22:10
Betsson🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 29.21%EV +17.54%E +5.57%K +8.16%G +1.43%1.30I 76.92%NM 70.79%EV -18.51%E -14.24%K -61.69%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-02 22:10
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV +2.61%E +0.950%K +1.49%G +0.039%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -9.73%E -6.76%K -22.12%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-02 22:10
888sport🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV +2.61%E +0.950%K +1.49%G +0.039%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -12.24%E -8.74%K -30.60%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-02 22:10
888sport (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV +2.61%E +0.950%K +1.49%G +0.039%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -12.24%E -8.74%K -30.60%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-02 22:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV +2.61%E +0.950%K +1.49%G +0.039%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -12.24%E -8.74%K -30.60%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-02 22:10
Fliff🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.82%EV +0.747%E +0.277%K +0.439%G +0.003%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.18%EV -13.49%E -9.78%K -35.51%G +0.000%9.5%2026-03-02 22:10
Bovada🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -2.98%E -1.15%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -5.34%E -3.54%K -10.48%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-02 22:10
theScore Bet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -2.98%E -1.15%K -1.87%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -9.10%E -6.28%K -20.23%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-02 22:10
NordicBet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.71%EV -6.72%E -2.69%K -4.48%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 63.29%EV -9.10%E -6.28%K -20.23%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-02 22:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 39.60%EV -8.95%E -3.67%K -6.22%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.40%EV +0.298%E +0.186%K +0.497%G +0.001%3.5%2026-03-02 22:03
Pinnacle🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 39.70%EV -9.33%E -3.84%K -6.52%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.30%EV +0.298%E +0.186%K +0.497%G +0.001%3.7%2026-03-02 21:59
GTbets🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -10.45%E -4.35%K -7.46%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -0.956%E -0.605%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-02 21:58
PlayUp🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -10.45%E -4.35%K -7.46%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -2.84%E -1.83%K -5.16%G +0.000%6.2%2026-03-02 22:00
LowVig.ag🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.65%EV -11.19%E -4.70%K -8.11%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 59.35%EV +2.18%E +1.34%K +3.46%G +0.075%3.4%2026-03-02 21:59
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -11.19%E -4.70%K -8.11%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -4.09%E -2.67%K -7.72%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-02 21:57
Marathon Bet🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.48%EV -13.06%E -5.60%K -9.82%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 60.52%EV -4.72%E -3.10%K -9.07%G +0.000%8.7%2026-03-02 21:59
Bet Victor🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -14.18%E -6.16%K -10.91%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -1.58%E -1.01%K -2.78%G +0.000%7.2%2026-03-02 22:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets2.90I 34.48%NM 33.94%1.49I 67.11%NM 66.06%1.6%2026-03-02 22:10