Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lulu Sun v Maddison Inglis

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 20:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

70%

30%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lulu Sun (Local)

Prediction 69.70%1.43fair odd

EV +5.24%

Edge +3.47%

Kelly +10.28%

Growth +0.539%

assuming max odds 1.51

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

63.88%69.33%68.97%72.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.271.351.351.5178.74%74.29%73.80%66.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Maddison Inglis (Visit)

Prediction 30.30%3.30fair odd

EV +6.06%

Edge +1.73%

Kelly +2.42%

Growth +0.147%

assuming max odds 3.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

27.08%30.67%31.03%36.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.673.143.103.5037.45%31.88%32.26%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lulu Sun (Local): 69.70%; Maddison Inglis (Visit): 30.30%. For Maddison Inglis (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.30. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.06%.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 63.88%EV +5.24%E +3.47%K +10.28%G +0.539%	2.67I 37.45%NM 36.12%EV -19.09%E -7.15%K -11.43%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-03-01 19:55
LowVig.ag🎯	1.39I 71.94%NM 68.97%EV -3.12%E -2.24%K -8.00%G +0.000%	3.09I 32.36%NM 31.03%EV -6.37%E -2.06%K -3.05%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-03-01 16:44
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.39I 71.94%NM 68.97%EV -3.12%E -2.24%K -8.00%G +0.000%	3.09I 32.36%NM 31.03%EV -6.37%E -2.06%K -3.05%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-03-01 16:44
Bovada🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.21%E -3.83%K -14.48%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -3.03%E -0.948%K -1.38%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-03-01 19:54
GTbets🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.91%EV -5.21%E -3.83%K -14.48%G +0.000%	3.16I 31.65%NM 30.09%EV -4.24%E -1.34%K -1.96%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-03-01 19:33
Everygame🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -5.21%E -3.83%K -14.48%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -6.06%E -1.96%K -2.89%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-03-01 16:45
888sport🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.21%E -3.83%K -14.48%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -9.09%E -3.03%K -4.55%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-01 19:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.21%E -3.83%K -14.48%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -9.09%E -3.03%K -4.55%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-01 19:50
888sport (SE)🎯	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.21%E -3.83%K -14.48%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -9.09%E -3.03%K -4.55%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-01 19:50
NordicBet🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -5.91%E -4.38%K -16.88%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -12.12%E -4.18%K -6.38%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-03-01 19:54
Betsson🎯	1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -5.91%E -4.38%K -16.88%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -12.12%E -4.18%K -6.38%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-03-01 19:55
William Hill🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -7.30%E -5.49%K -22.13%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -1.52%E -0.467%K -0.674%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-03-01 16:44
Bet Victor🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -7.30%E -5.49%K -22.13%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -6.06%E -1.96%K -2.89%G +0.000%	7.4%	2026-03-01 19:53
Betway🎯	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -9.39%E -7.23%K -31.31%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV +6.06%E +1.73%K +2.42%G +0.147%	5.5%	2026-03-01 19:49
theScore Bet🎯	1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -10.09%E -7.82%K -34.79%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV +3.03%E +0.891%K +1.26%G +0.038%	6.9%	2026-03-01 19:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -10.79%E -8.43%K -38.53%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV +3.03%E +0.891%K +1.26%G +0.038%	7.5%	2026-03-01 19:54
Coral🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -10.79%E -8.43%K -38.53%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV +3.03%E +0.891%K +1.26%G +0.038%	7.5%	2026-03-01 19:55
Fliff🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 72.21%EV -11.48%E -9.04%K -42.53%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -0.002%E -0.001%K -0.001%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-03-01 19:54

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.43I 69.93%NM 69.11%	3.20I 31.25%NM 30.89%	1.2%	2026-03-01 19:54