Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lucrezia Stefanini v Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva

Kickoff: 2026-03-03 02:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

41%

59%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Lucrezia Stefanini (Local)

Prediction 41.43%2.41fair odd

EV +8.56%

Edge +3.27%

Kelly +5.28%

Growth +0.452%

assuming max odds 2.62

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

35.47%41.02%41.29%44.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.052.282.252.6248.78%43.81%44.44%38.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva (Visit)

Prediction 58.57%1.71fair odd

EV -1.61%

Edge -0.958%

Kelly -2.37%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

55.41%58.98%58.71%64.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.441.601.601.6869.44%62.48%62.50%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Lucrezia Stefanini (Local): 41.43%; Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva (Visit): 58.57%. For Lucrezia Stefanini (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.41. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.62, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.56%.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Bet Victor🎯	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV +8.56%E +3.27%K +5.28%G +0.452%	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -15.67%E -10.88%K -35.60%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-03-03 01:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV +7.73%E +2.97%K +4.83%G +0.373%	1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -13.32%E -9.00%K -27.76%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-03-03 01:10
Marathon Bet🎯	2.31I 43.29%NM 39.84%EV -4.29%E -1.86%K -3.27%G +0.000%	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.16%EV -10.39%E -6.79%K -19.61%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-03-03 01:04
Betway🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -4.70%E -2.04%K -3.62%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -6.29%E -3.93%K -10.49%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-03-03 01:10
theScore Bet🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -4.70%E -2.04%K -3.62%G +0.000%	1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -6.88%E -4.33%K -11.66%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-03-03 01:10
Coral🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -4.70%E -2.04%K -3.62%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -9.22%E -5.95%K -16.77%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-03-03 01:10
Pinnacle🎯	2.28I 43.86%NM 42.28%EV -5.53%E -2.43%K -4.32%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 57.72%EV -2.20%E -1.31%K -3.28%G +0.000%	3.7%	2026-03-03 00:59
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.27I 44.05%NM 42.53%EV -5.94%E -2.62%K -4.68%G +0.000%	1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV -1.61%E -0.958%K -2.37%G +0.000%	3.6%	2026-03-03 01:05
LowVig.ag🎯	2.27I 44.05%NM 42.53%EV -5.94%E -2.62%K -4.68%G +0.000%	1.68I 59.52%NM 57.47%EV -1.61%E -0.958%K -2.37%G +0.000%	3.6%	2026-03-03 01:05
Bovada🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -6.77%E -3.01%K -5.42%G +0.000%	1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.20%E -1.31%K -3.28%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-03-03 01:09
GTbets🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.77%E -3.01%K -5.42%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.37%E -2.04%K -5.18%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-03-03 01:01
PlayUp🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.01%EV -6.77%E -3.01%K -5.42%G +0.000%	1.63I 61.35%NM 57.99%EV -4.54%E -2.78%K -7.20%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-03-03 01:04
888sport🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.77%E -3.01%K -5.42%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.29%E -3.93%K -10.49%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-03 01:10
888sport (SE)🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.77%E -3.01%K -5.42%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.29%E -3.93%K -10.49%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-03 01:10
Mr Green (SE)🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 41.56%EV -6.77%E -3.01%K -5.42%G +0.000%	1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -6.29%E -3.93%K -10.49%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-03 01:10
NordicBet🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 40.79%EV -6.77%E -3.01%K -5.42%G +0.000%	1.55I 64.52%NM 59.21%EV -9.22%E -5.95%K -16.77%G +0.000%	9.0%	2026-03-03 01:05
Everygame🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -8.84%E -4.02%K -7.37%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -3.37%E -2.04%K -5.18%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-03-03 00:59
William Hill🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -8.84%E -4.02%K -7.37%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.12%E -3.16%K -8.26%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-03-03 00:59
Fliff🎯	2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -8.84%E -4.02%K -7.37%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -8.05%E -5.13%K -14.13%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-03-03 01:05
Betsson🎯	2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -15.06%E -7.35%K -14.34%G +0.000%	1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -3.37%E -2.04%K -5.18%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-03-03 01:09

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	2.02I 49.50%NM 46.42%	1.75I 57.14%NM 53.58%	6.6%	2026-03-03 01:10