Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kayla Day v Aliaksandra Sasnovich

Kickoff: 2026-03-02 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

65%

35%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kayla Day (Local)

Prediction 65.00%1.54fair odd

EV +2.05%

Edge +1.31%

Kelly +3.60%

Growth +0.074%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

61.33%65.33%65.03%70.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.331.441.441.5775.19%69.56%69.44%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Aliaksandra Sasnovich (Visit)

Prediction 35.00%2.86fair odd

EV +11.99%

Edge +3.75%

Kelly +5.45%

Growth +0.654%

assuming max odds 3.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

29.36%34.67%34.97%38.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.452.682.623.2040.82%37.25%38.17%31.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kayla Day (Local): 65.00%; Aliaksandra Sasnovich (Visit): 35.00%. For Aliaksandra Sasnovich (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.86. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +11.99%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Bet Victor🎯	1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -13.55%E -10.19%K -41.05%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV +11.99%E +3.75%K +5.45%G +0.654%	6.4%	2026-03-01 23:55
Betway🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -9.00%E -6.43%K -22.49%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV +1.49%E +0.515%K +0.786%G +0.012%	5.9%	2026-03-01 23:54
Bovada🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -6.40%E -4.44%K -14.54%G +0.000%	2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -0.256%E -0.090%K -0.138%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-03-01 23:52
Coral🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -9.00%E -6.43%K -22.49%G +0.000%	2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -2.01%E -0.716%K -1.11%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-03-01 23:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -9.00%E -6.43%K -22.49%G +0.000%	2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -3.76%E -1.37%K -2.15%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-03-01 23:49
theScore Bet🎯	1.42I 70.42%NM 65.53%EV -7.70%E -5.42%K -18.33%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.47%EV -5.51%E -2.04%K -3.24%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-03-01 23:49
888sport🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.40%E -4.44%K -14.54%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -8.31%E -3.17%K -5.13%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-03-01 23:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.40%E -4.44%K -14.54%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -8.31%E -3.17%K -5.13%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-03-01 23:54
888sport (SE)🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -6.40%E -4.44%K -14.54%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -8.31%E -3.17%K -5.13%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-03-01 23:54
Pinnacle🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 61.33%EV +2.05%E +1.31%K +3.60%G +0.074%	2.49I 40.16%NM 38.67%EV -12.85%E -5.16%K -8.63%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-03-01 23:55
Fliff🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -4.45%E -3.03%K -9.46%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -14.25%E -5.82%K -9.83%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-03-01 23:54
NordicBet🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -4.45%E -3.03%K -9.46%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -14.25%E -5.82%K -9.83%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-03-01 23:54
Betsson🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 62.50%EV -4.45%E -3.03%K -9.46%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.50%EV -14.25%E -5.82%K -9.83%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-03-01 23:54

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.53I 65.36%NM 64.17%	2.74I 36.50%NM 35.83%	1.9%	2026-03-01 23:55