Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Katie Boulter v Viktoriya Tomova

Kickoff: 2026-03-02 22:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

13 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

89%

11%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Katie Boulter (Local)

Prediction 89.18%1.12fair odd

EV -4.58%

Edge -4.28%

Kelly -65.41%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

86.85%89.69%88.96%93.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.031.051.061.0797.09%94.82%94.34%93.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Viktoriya Tomova (Visit)

Prediction 10.82%9.24fair odd

EV +57.99%

Edge +3.97%

Kelly +4.26%

Growth +2.47%

assuming max odds 14.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

6.77%10.31%11.04%13.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

7.009.108.5014.6014.29%10.99%11.76%6.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Katie Boulter (Local): 89.18%; Viktoriya Tomova (Visit): 10.82%. For Viktoriya Tomova (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.24. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 14.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +57.99%.

Sportsbook Odds (13 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 93.23%EV -5.47%E -5.16%K -91.17%G +0.000%	14.60I 6.85%NM 6.77%EV +57.99%E +3.97%K +4.26%G +2.47%	1.2%	2026-03-02 21:50
Bovada🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -5.47%E -5.16%K -91.17%G +0.000%	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV +8.21%E +0.821%K +0.912%G +0.075%	4.3%	2026-03-02 21:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -5.47%E -5.16%K -91.17%G +0.000%	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV +8.21%E +0.821%K +0.912%G +0.075%	4.3%	2026-03-02 21:50
Betway🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 90.50%EV -6.36%E -6.06%K -127.24%G +0.000%	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.50%EV +8.21%E +0.821%K +0.912%G +0.075%	5.2%	2026-03-02 21:55
888sport (SE)🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 89.55%EV -6.36%E -6.06%K -127.24%G +0.000%	9.00I 11.11%NM 10.45%EV -2.61%E -0.290%K -0.326%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-02 21:50
Coral🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 88.82%EV -4.58%E -4.28%K -65.41%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 11.18%EV -8.02%E -0.944%K -1.07%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-03-02 21:55
theScore Bet🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -5.47%E -5.16%K -91.17%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -8.02%E -0.944%K -1.07%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-03-02 21:55
Bet Victor🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 89.01%EV -6.36%E -6.06%K -127.24%G +0.000%	8.50I 11.76%NM 10.99%EV -8.02%E -0.944%K -1.07%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-03-02 21:50
Fliff🎯	1.03I 97.09%NM 89.14%EV -8.15%E -7.91%K -271.53%G +0.000%	8.45I 11.83%NM 10.86%EV -8.56%E -1.01%K -1.15%G +0.000%	8.9%	2026-03-02 21:55
888sport🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -5.47%E -5.16%K -91.17%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -13.43%E -1.68%K -1.92%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-03-02 21:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 88.30%EV -5.47%E -5.16%K -91.17%G +0.000%	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.70%EV -13.43%E -1.68%K -1.92%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-03-02 21:55
Betsson🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 88.17%EV -7.25%E -6.98%K -181.35%G +0.000%	7.75I 12.90%NM 11.83%EV -16.14%E -2.08%K -2.39%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-03-02 21:55
NordicBet🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 86.85%EV -5.47%E -5.16%K -91.17%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.15%EV -24.25%E -3.46%K -4.04%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-03-02 21:55

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.09I 91.74%NM 91.34%	11.49I 8.70%NM 8.66%	0.4%	2026-03-02 21:55