Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kamilla Rakhimova v Maria Lourdes Carle

Kickoff: 2026-03-01 20:04 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Kamilla Rakhimova (Local)

Prediction 73.00%1.37fair odd
EV -1.45%
Edge -1.07%
Kelly -4.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.24%72.56%73.63%76.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.281.281.3581.97%78.16%78.13%74.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Maria Lourdes Carle (Visit)

Prediction 27.00%3.70fair odd
EV +8.00%
Edge +2.00%
Kelly +2.67%
Growth +0.213%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.37%27.44%26.37%31.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.573.634.0034.48%28.05%27.55%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kamilla Rakhimova (Local): 73.00%; Maria Lourdes Carle (Visit): 27.00%. For Maria Lourdes Carle (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.70. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.00%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Coral🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -10.94%E -8.97%K -49.72%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV +8.00%E +2.00%K +2.67%G +0.213%7.0%2026-03-01 20:00
Pinnacle🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -5.83%E -4.52%K -20.10%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV +2.60%E +0.683%K +0.928%G +0.024%3.8%2026-03-01 19:59
Betway🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -5.83%E -4.52%K -20.10%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV +1.25%E +0.333%K +0.453%G +0.006%4.2%2026-03-01 19:59
William Hill🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -8.75%E -7.00%K -35.00%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV +1.25%E +0.333%K +0.453%G +0.006%6.7%2026-03-01 19:54
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -8.75%E -7.00%K -35.00%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV +1.25%E +0.333%K +0.453%G +0.006%6.7%2026-03-01 20:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -8.75%E -7.00%K -35.00%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV +1.25%E +0.333%K +0.453%G +0.006%6.7%2026-03-01 20:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -8.75%E -7.00%K -35.00%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -0.103%E -0.028%K -0.038%G +0.000%7.0%2026-03-01 20:00
LowVig.ag🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.63%EV -5.10%E -3.92%K -17.00%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.37%EV -1.99%E -0.549%K -0.758%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-01 19:57
BetOnline.ag🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.63%EV -5.10%E -3.92%K -17.00%G +0.000%3.63I 27.55%NM 26.37%EV -1.99%E -0.549%K -0.758%G +0.000%4.5%2026-03-01 19:58
theScore Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -7.29%E -5.74%K -27.00%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -2.80%E -0.779%K -1.08%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-01 20:00
Everygame🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.50%EV -6.56%E -5.12%K -23.43%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.50%EV -4.15%E -1.17%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-01 19:59
888sport🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.83%E -4.52%K -20.10%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -5.50%E -1.57%K -2.20%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-01 20:00
GTbets🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 72.48%EV -4.37%E -3.34%K -14.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -6.85%E -1.99%K -2.80%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-01 19:54
NordicBet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.40%EV -8.75%E -7.00%K -35.00%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.60%EV -6.85%E -1.99%K -2.80%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-01 20:00
Fliff🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.21%EV -7.29%E -5.74%K -27.00%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -10.90%E -3.30%K -4.74%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-01 20:00
Bet Victor🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -2.91%E -2.19%K -8.82%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -16.30%E -5.26%K -7.76%G +0.000%7.4%2026-03-01 19:58
Betsson🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 68.24%EV -1.45%E -1.07%K -4.14%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.76%EV -21.70%E -7.48%K -11.42%G +0.000%8.6%2026-03-01 20:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%4.5%2026-03-01 19:48