Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Himeno Sakatsume v Nikola Bartunkova

Kickoff: 2026-03-03 23:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

24%

76%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Himeno Sakatsume (Local)

Prediction 24.46%4.09fair odd

EV +10.08%

Edge +2.24%

Kelly +2.88%

Growth +0.290%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

21.05%25.16%22.35%32.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.903.643.804.5034.48%27.47%26.32%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nikola Bartunkova (Visit)

Prediction 75.54%1.32fair odd

EV +8.02%

Edge +5.61%

Kelly +18.65%

Growth +1.50%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

67.28%74.84%77.65%78.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.181.291.251.4384.75%77.42%80.00%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Himeno Sakatsume (Local): 24.46%; Nikola Bartunkova (Visit): 75.54%. For Himeno Sakatsume (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.09. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +10.08%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Pinnacle🎯	2.94I 34.01%NM 32.72%EV -28.08%E -9.55%K -14.47%G +0.000%	1.43I 69.93%NM 67.28%EV +8.02%E +5.61%K +18.65%G +1.50%	3.9%	2026-03-03 22:10
Bovada🎯	2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -27.83%E -9.44%K -14.27%G +0.000%	1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV +7.26%E +5.11%K +17.29%G +1.26%	4.3%	2026-03-03 22:10
LowVig.ag🎯	2.98I 33.56%NM 32.12%EV -27.10%E -9.09%K -13.69%G +0.000%	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.88%EV +6.51%E +4.62%K +15.87%G +1.03%	4.5%	2026-03-03 22:15
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.98I 33.56%NM 32.12%EV -27.10%E -9.09%K -13.69%G +0.000%	1.41I 70.92%NM 67.88%EV +6.51%E +4.62%K +15.87%G +1.03%	4.5%	2026-03-03 22:15
GTbets🎯	2.98I 33.56%NM 31.96%EV -27.10%E -9.09%K -13.69%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 68.04%EV +5.75%E +4.11%K +14.38%G +0.827%	5.0%	2026-03-03 22:13
PlayUp🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -29.06%E -10.02%K -15.29%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV +5.75%E +4.11%K +14.38%G +0.827%	5.9%	2026-03-03 22:15
Everygame🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -29.06%E -10.02%K -15.29%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV +5.75%E +4.11%K +14.38%G +0.827%	5.9%	2026-03-03 22:10
William Hill🎯	2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -29.06%E -10.02%K -15.29%G +0.000%	1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV +5.75%E +4.11%K +14.38%G +0.827%	5.9%	2026-03-03 22:10
Coral🎯	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -7.04%E -1.85%K -2.51%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.58%E -4.46%K -22.31%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-03 22:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -7.04%E -1.85%K -2.51%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.58%E -4.46%K -22.31%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-03-03 22:30
Bet Victor🎯	3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -8.26%E -2.20%K -3.01%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.58%E -4.46%K -22.31%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-03-03 22:28
Betway🎯	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV +10.08%E +2.24%K +2.88%G +0.290%	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -9.36%E -7.80%K -46.78%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-03-03 22:30
888sport🎯	4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV +5.92%E +1.37%K +1.78%G +0.105%	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -9.36%E -7.80%K -46.78%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-03-03 22:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯	4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV +5.92%E +1.37%K +1.78%G +0.105%	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -9.36%E -7.80%K -46.78%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-03-03 22:30
888sport (SE)🎯	4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV +5.92%E +1.37%K +1.78%G +0.105%	1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -9.36%E -7.80%K -46.78%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-03-03 22:30
theScore Bet🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV +7.64%E +1.74%K +2.25%G +0.171%	1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -10.87%E -9.21%K -60.37%G +0.000%	7.5%	2026-03-03 22:30
Fliff🎯	4.20I 23.81%NM 21.93%EV +2.74%E +0.653%K +0.857%G +0.024%	1.18I 84.75%NM 78.07%EV -10.87%E -9.21%K -60.37%G +0.000%	8.6%	2026-03-03 22:30
Betsson🎯	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%EV +0.297%E +0.072%K +0.096%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 77.65%EV -10.87%E -9.21%K -60.37%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-03-03 22:30
NordicBet🎯	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.35%EV +0.297%E +0.072%K +0.096%G +0.000%	1.18I 84.75%NM 77.65%EV -10.87%E -9.21%K -60.37%G +0.000%	9.1%	2026-03-03 22:30

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	5.30I 18.87%NM 18.71%	1.22I 81.97%NM 81.29%	0.8%	2026-03-03 22:30