Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Darja Semenistaja v Kayla Day

Kickoff: 2026-03-03 18:14 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

50%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Darja Semenistaja (Local)

Prediction 50.40%1.98fair odd

EV +0.794%

Edge +0.397%

Kelly +0.794%

Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

47.78%50.50%50.14%53.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.731.861.852.0057.80%53.89%54.05%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kayla Day (Visit)

Prediction 49.60%2.02fair odd

EV -0.794%

Edge -0.397%

Kelly -0.794%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

46.38%49.50%49.86%52.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.831.901.882.0054.64%52.66%53.05%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Darja Semenistaja (Local): 50.40%; Kayla Day (Visit): 49.60%. For Darja Semenistaja (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.98. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.794%.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
LowVig.ag🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV +0.794%E +0.397%K +0.794%G +0.006%	1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -9.23%E -5.04%K -11.12%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-03-03 18:10
BetOnline.ag🎯	2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV +0.794%E +0.397%K +0.794%G +0.006%	1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -9.23%E -5.04%K -11.12%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-03-03 18:10
Pinnacle🎯	1.94I 51.55%NM 49.61%EV -2.23%E -1.15%K -2.37%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 50.39%EV -5.26%E -2.75%K -5.78%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-03-03 18:11
GTbets🎯	1.92I 52.08%NM 49.61%EV -3.24%E -1.69%K -3.52%G +0.000%	1.89I 52.91%NM 50.39%EV -6.25%E -3.31%K -7.02%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-03-03 18:06
William Hill🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.74%E -1.96%K -4.11%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.26%E -2.75%K -5.78%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-03-03 18:03
Bovada🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.74%E -1.96%K -4.11%G +0.000%	1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.26%E -2.75%K -5.78%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-03-03 17:59
Everygame🎯	1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -5.25%E -2.79%K -5.97%G +0.000%	1.88I 53.19%NM 50.00%EV -6.75%E -3.59%K -7.67%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-03-03 17:57
Betway🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -6.77%E -3.66%K -7.96%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -3.27%E -1.68%K -3.45%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-03-03 18:10
888sport🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -6.77%E -3.66%K -7.96%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -8.23%E -4.45%K -9.69%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-03-03 18:10
Betsson🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -6.77%E -3.66%K -7.96%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -8.23%E -4.45%K -9.69%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-03-03 18:07
NordicBet🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -6.77%E -3.66%K -7.96%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -8.23%E -4.45%K -9.69%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-03-03 18:07
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -6.77%E -3.66%K -7.96%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -8.23%E -4.45%K -9.69%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-03-03 18:10
Coral🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -6.77%E -3.66%K -7.96%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 50.00%EV -8.23%E -4.45%K -9.69%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-03-03 18:11
Marathon Bet🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 50.27%EV -7.77%E -4.25%K -9.37%G +0.000%	1.85I 54.05%NM 49.73%EV -8.23%E -4.45%K -9.69%G +0.000%	8.7%	2026-03-03 18:00
PlayUp🎯	1.82I 54.95%NM 51.72%EV -8.28%E -4.55%K -10.09%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.28%EV -3.27%E -1.68%K -3.45%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-03-03 18:10
Bet Victor🎯	1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -9.29%E -5.16%K -11.61%G +0.000%	1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV -3.27%E -1.68%K -3.45%G +0.000%	6.8%	2026-03-03 18:09
theScore Bet🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -10.80%E -6.10%K -14.02%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -0.794%E -0.397%K -0.794%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-03-03 18:11
Fliff🎯	1.77I 56.50%NM 51.37%EV -10.80%E -6.10%K -14.02%G +0.000%	1.87I 53.48%NM 48.63%EV -7.24%E -3.87%K -8.32%G +0.000%	10.0%	2026-03-03 18:11
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -12.81%E -7.41%K -17.55%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -0.794%E -0.397%K -0.794%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-03-03 18:11
888sport (SE)🎯	1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -12.81%E -7.41%K -17.55%G +0.000%	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -0.794%E -0.397%K -0.794%G +0.000%	7.8%	2026-03-03 18:11

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets◎	1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%	5.0%	2026-03-03 18:11